Steven Matz Struggling; DiMaggio “Good Looks” Won’t Save Him

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DiMaggio Matz

So Opening Day is less than two weeks away, and Steven Matz has been getting rocked all spring. Now I’ve covered this to death, but Spring Training generally doesn’t matter. It really doesn’t. When the Soupmaster General Eric Campbell and Travis Taijeron are leading in every offensive category for your team, it either means your team is the Long Island Ducks or it’s Spring Training. That being said, spring means a little more for some players and a little less for others. Bartolo Colon? Spring is meaningless. He’s a seasoned veteran. He pitched like crap last spring and won 8 games between April and May. Jacob deGrom? It means a little more than nothing, but he’s already put together two full major league seasons. He’s been through the 162 game grind twice. He knows how to efficiently prepare for a full season.

Rookie Steven Matz? It actually means something. Let’s be real, if Matz hadn’t debuted in the fashion he did last season, and he came into 2016 camp battling for a spot in this rotation, his 8.31 ERA would have had him reassigned to the minor leagues over a week ago. I believe that he will get things going. I trust that it’s rust. But I’m guilty of getting overexcited and ramping up my expectations for this dude to the highest level. I’m just imagining Rookie of the Year ceremonies, Cy Young awards, and pretending he’s Clayton Kershaw. He’s got a lot to prove. Heck he’s got everything to prove. All we’ve seen so far is Steven Matz has amazing stuff and has made some real solid pressure filled playoff starts to kick off his career. Now he needs to put it all together over a full season. He needs to show he can stay healthy. He needs to show he can execute pitches consistently at the major league level. I’m sure Steven will get himself together and start off on the right foot. All I’m saying is, he’s a rookie so growing pains are inevitable and should be expected. And if all else fails he can go back to his promising career as a Joe DiMaggio impersonator living on Long Island with his parents. Who knows, maybe he’ll score the lead role in The Sandlot 4: DiMaggio’s Return. Perhaps he’ll spurn children’s films for the adult genre. He could be Joe DiMaggio in a late night Cinemax movie called 69: The Forgotten Streak. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. He’ll focus on baseball first, and then he can work on the DiMaggio related endorsements.

My Best Guess: Predicting the 2016 National League Central

On By themetssiah2 Comments

Leo bear

(This is one post in a series of posts where I will be predicting the outcome of each MLB division. The final post will include full 2016 MLB postseason predictions.)

In 2015 the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs were the three best regular season teams in Major League Baseball, and it wasn’t really that close. The Cardinals are just completely ridiculous. They are like the Yankees in that they are God’s other chosen team. Every season, things seemingly work out for them. They overcome every injury and obstacle. In 2015, they overcame the statistical regression of their veteran catcher Yadier Molina, and they overcame injuries to veteran outfielder Matt Holiday. They also consistently get the most out of the players they acquire. Case in point would be John Lackey posting the best ERA of his career in 2015 as a 36 year old Cardinal. They won one hundred freaking games! They had the 24th ranked offense, but they had the league’s best pitching staff. Before the Mets acquired Yoenis Cespedes, they had an offense at the bottom of the barrel and a pitching staff at the very top too. Just like the Cardinals. Yet the Mets could barely maintain a .500 record without Cespedes. The Cardinals cruised to a hundo wins. Now that’s God’s work. Not to mention the fact that they had the best pitching staff with Adam Wainwright missing the whole damn season. The acquisition of Jason Heyward and his sabermetric mojo seemingly helped add to that win total. But I attribute it to voodoo magic or something. And I guess a little credit goes to the emergence of young outfielders Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk.

The Pirates have had their young core in place for a few years now, and they keep winning a ton of games. But they keep losing MLB’s stupid one game Wild Card playoff. An entire damn season of domination wasted. Poor Pirates. They are just as talented as their division rivals. They just need some damn luck. And maybe this year Jung Ho Kang won’t get crippled by a takeout slide in September. But judging by the new rules he probably will.

The Cubs were a very similar team to the Mets before the 2015 season. They’d both been rebuilding for a nice long stretch, and they finally had their young talent ready to produce at the major league level. The only difference being the Mets had the talented young pitching and the Cubs were brimming with talented position players. In order to really compete, the Mets needed a big impact bat. The Cubs needed the big time arm. The Mets signed useless old man Michael Cuddyer. The Cubs actually filled their need with Jon Lester. The result? The Mets were mediocre until they got the big bat at the trade deadline. The Cubs dominated all season. The Cubs immediate jump from worst to almost first surprised people. But ironically it was the Mets young pitching that defeated them in the NLCS. So the Cubs went into the offseason knowing at a minimum they had to bolster their rotation. And in addition to their rotation, they decided to bolster every other part of their team.

Cincinnati and Milwaukee were in the bottom third of the league in hitting and pitching. They were terrible, and they were terrible from day one. Both teams had been in denial about their demise, but in 2015 they hit rock bottom. This offseason, both organizations officially checked themselves into a baseball rehabilitation program (aka a rebuild) and will take all the necessary steps to get better. Here’s what I see in 2016:

NL Central: 1) Chicago Cubs (x) 2) Pittsburgh Pirates (wc) 3) St. Louis Cardinals 4) Cincinnati Reds 5) Milwaukee Brewers

When Theo Epstein entered this Cubs roster into his robot projection computer, it exploded. No doubt about it. Every projection system has the Cubs winning 140 games, and then the computer starts to smoke and ultimately shorts out. And I understand why. They won 97 games last season. Their young position player studs should all improve. They retained Dexter Fowler. And they added two players that the sabermetric experts adore in Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward. Oh and they also added John Lackey to their rotation. Oh and Lackey and Heyward came directly from the division rival Cardinals. So yeah I see why the computers shorted out. Their lineup should be elite from top to bottom with Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Anthony Rizzo at it’s core. After breaking out in his age 29 season and winning the Cy Young, Jake Arrieta seems poised for another elite season at the top of their rotation and should get paid the big bucks very soon. According to Wikipedia, Jake is known as a “workout freak” who does pilates and incorporates kale juice into his diet. I’ll have to get me some of his kale Popeye smoothies so I can totally “emerge” as I approach 30.

Jon Lester and John Lackey give the Cubs strong veteran starters behind Arrieta. I don’t see Lackey matching the 2015 numbers he had with the Cardinals particularly at Wrigley Field. His ERA was much higher at the hitter friendly Fenway Park when he was with the Red Sox, and I could see the same thing happening in Chicago. They don’t have any studs behind their big 3 in the rotation. But they have so much depth on offense that they can really pull a trade for a starter at any time during the season. I don’t think the Kyle Schwarber experiment in LF is going to pan out. The guy is a big fat DH. I expect a lot of embarrassing belly flops out there for him with balls rolling all the way to the wall all season long. It’s got Lucas Duda outfield experiment written all over it. Addison Russell is going to be a star. The Mets lucked out that he was injured for the NLCS. The Cubs bullpen is full of former starting pitchers which is so trendy right now. Starting pitchers in the pen is so big in this year’s summer bullpen collection by MLB. Trevor Cahill and Adam Warren are two such examples. The computers are not wrong. The Cubs are going to be elite. They are going to battle with the Cardinals and Pirates all season long in the same way they did last year. But they will take the division this time.

The Pirates won 98 games in 2015. Andrew McCutchen is going to be an MVP candidate per usual. Gerrit Cole is going to be a Cy Young candidate as well. Francisco Liriano is a great number 2. They replaced A.J. Burnett and J.A. Happ with Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong. A little mid-rotation starter musical chairs. Who cares. They straight up let Pedro Alvarez walk to Baltimore, but they seemingly like the platoon they have at 1B now with John Jaso and Sean Rodriguez. Neil Walker is now a Met. But they were pretty deep in the infield already and Josh Harrison is great for 2B. They also just signed David Freese to bolster the infield depth. The ace in the hole here is top pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow is coming. And he’s coming in 2016. The Pirates definitely see him having a major impact for them this season. He could bring that rotation to the next level. It’s part of the reason they were willing to sacrifice some offense in Alvarez and Walker.

The Cardinals lost Jason Heyward and John Lackey to the Cubs. Matt Holiday is getting old. They have two first basemen in Brandon Moss and Matt Adams aka Fat Adams and only one base for them to play. But their rotation and bullpen are still elite even without Lackey. They signed a great replacement in Mike Leake. They have Adam Wainwright back. They signed Jonathan Broxton and Korean reliever Seung-hwan Oh for the bullpen. They had the number 3 bullpen ERA and the number 1 starters ERA in 2015. And they won 100 games. They should be in the same ballpark this season. Plus the Cardinals in general are just so #blessed like the stupid Yankees. But I still think the Cubs and Pirates find their way to the top of the Central in 2016.

Cincinnati and Milwuakee are in full rebuild mode. They are going to be unwatchable and will be trampled by the Cubs, Pirates and Cardinals all season long. Basically the same story as last season except the Reds and Brewers are now officially out of the “tanking” closet. The Brewers traded Khris Davis. They have former Met bum Kirk Nieuwenhuis hitting cleanup for them this Spring with former Met Eric Young Jr. battling for a spot on the bench. Captain Kirk hit 3 dingers in a game last season. Other than that he never did shit. Poor Brewers fans. May God have mercy on your souls.

The Reds have their white flags up and waving for 2016. They traded Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman for a plethora of prospects this offseason. The consensus was that they got hosed by the Yankees and White Sox in those trades. Whoops!

 

Other Divisional Predictions:

American League East

American League Central

American League West

National League East

My Best Guess: Predicting the 2016 National League East

On By themetssiah4 Comments

cespedes cigar

(This is one post in a series of posts where I will be predicting the outcome of each MLB division. The final post will include full 2016 MLB postseason predictions.)

Before the 2015 season started, the Nationals were heavy favorites in the NL East. The experts saw them winning 100 games and representing the NL in the World Series. A lot of people also predicted the Marlins would have a big season after they made a number of offseason moves. These moves included the acquisition of utility infielder Martin Prado, 2B Dee Gordon, and OF Ichiro Suzuki. The Mets were seen as a pitching rich team with more young pitching on the way midseason. But the experts unanimously agreed that the Mets were short an impact bat. The rebuilding Phillies and Braves were expected to be the cellar dwelling duo that actively reinforced the division’s reputation as the NL Least. Well in the end the Marlins were terrible, and they joined the Phillies and Braves at the forefront of MLB’s list of bad teams. The Nationals had tons of injuries, a horrible manager, and by September the Nationals hit rock bottom when their new closer Jonathan Papelbon choked out NL MVP Bryce Harper in the dugout on national television. As expected, the Mets had elite pitching and an absolutely anemic offense through July. However, once they acquired Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline, the offense went from worst to first and launched the Mets to the NL East crown and a World Series appearance. Not much changed this offseason as far as the NL East big picture is concerned. The Braves and Phillies are still rebuilding. The Marlins are still pretending they have a chance to be good. The Mets and Nationals should duke it out for the division crown. Here’s what I see in 2016:

NL East: 1) NY Mets (x) 2) Washington Nationals (wc) 3) Miami Marlins 4) Atlanta Braves 5) Philadelphia Phillies

I see the Mets and Nationals battling for the division all season long. As I wrote in my Mets season preview, I see the Mets winning the World Series for a number of reasons. The main reasons being their unrivaled starting pitching and the fact that they have the postseason experience now. We all saw what the Royals did in the 2015 postseason. They were so composed. So battle tested. I expect the Mets to have that same moxie in 2016. And the Mets get to have a full season of Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz now. Not to mention the eventual return of Zack Wheeler who had arguably the best raw stuff of the entire group of pitchers. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard could all realistically win the Cy Young. I think the Mets have a deep lineup too with the potential to score a lot of runs. Michael Conforto is probably going to breakout. Neil Walker is going to have a big contract year. Yoenis Cespedes is going to make everyone around him better. Bullpen could be a weak spot, but as long as Jeurys Familia is closing, it won’t be that big of a problem. A pen arm can always be added down the stretch.

That being said, the Nationals aren’t going to be a pushover. And I think both the Mets and Nationals will wind up in the playoffs. The Nationals stumbled due to injuries last season and appalling managing by Matt Williams. Plain and simple. Sure the Mets came up big against them when they had to. Sure Yoenis Cespedes ended the Nationals career of Drew Storen with that September home run off of him that led to a sweep and ultimately locked up the division. But the Nationals ultimately stumbled more than the Mets truly beat them. The Nats still have a stacked rotation and lineup. I doubt Ryan Zimmerman will stay healthy in the same way I doubt David Wright will stay healthy for the Mets. Jayson Werth will probably rebound after his injury plagued 2015 which included a 5 day stint in jail for reckless driving. I think by season’s end, they will have the MVP (Bryce Harper) and the NL Cy Young winner (Max Scherzer). Stupid Daniel Murphy will probably provide a tremendous boost to their offense while simultaneously committing blunder after blunder in the field. Same story as his stint with the Mets. They revamped their bullpen, but I don’t really like any of their new pieces. They added former Met castoff Oliver Perez and Met farmhand Yusmeiro Petit. Woop-de-freakin-doo. They also have a Syndergaard-esque prospect due to come up in Lucas Giolito. He could really change the game down the stretch. I think the Nats will win a wild card after beating up on our weak division.

The Marlins hired Don Mattingly to manage and Barry Bonds to be their hitting coach. Just to be clear, these two guys are coaching. They are not joining the actual 2016 Marlins roster, in their playing prime, as a result of some tear in the space time fabric. The Marlins were 71-91 last season. They were awful. You can blame their former manager Mike Redmond and their GM Dan Jennings all you want. But I think this team stinks. Sure they have potential MVP candidate Giancarlo Stanton. But he gets hurt every season. He’s already battling knee pain again this spring. Dee Gordon won the batting title last season at 2B for the Marlins, and they still only won 71 games. He’s going to regress in 2016. Jose Fernandez is back for a full season at the top of their rotation. That is going to have a huge impact because he is so elite. And they did add Wei-Yin Chen as a number 2 starter. But they lost Carter Capps out of the pen this spring to TJ surgery. He was going to challenge for the closer’s job. Maybe the Marlins improve a bit. Maybe they go .500. But I don’t see them being much better than that.

The Phillies and Braves are in rebuild mode. They are both going to be miserable to watch and the Mets and Nationals are going to destroy them every other week when they play. The Braves made great offseason trades to continue to bolster their already stocked farm system. They robbed the D-Backs in that Shelby Miller deal. Dansby Swanson seems to be an elite future SS, and they also netted top pitching prospect Aaron Blair. The trade of their existing SS Andrelton Simmons netted them pitcher Sean Newcomb. They are stocking up on young pitching. Everyone’s trying to find a way to beat the Mets at their own game.

The Phillies waited way too long to start their rebuild, but they finally did start. They dished Cole Hamels last season. They even traded young closer Ken Giles to the Astros in the offseason. They signed some scrub players to fill out the pitching staff namely Jeremy Hellickson for the rotation and David Hernandez for the bullpen. They are excited to see what Maikel Franco does at 3B in his first full season and what Odubel Herrera does in the OF in his second season. But it’s going to be a brutal year in Philly. I’m sure the fans have their batteries primed and ready to pelt the Philly Phanatic.

 

Other Divisional Predictions:

American League East

American League Central

American League West

Weekly Roundup: Ruben Tejada Gifted To Cardinals For Tax Purposes

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Ruben Gifted To Cardinals For Tax Purposes: As April 15th approaches, the Wilpons are scrambling to find deductions and other ways to lower their 2015 tax bill. This week, in an effort to improve their bottom line, Ruben Tejada was waived by the Mets and gifted to the Cardinals for tax purposes. He was cut by the Mets to save 2.5 million dollars. That’s what happened. There’s no debating that. No discussion. It’s amazing, but I’ve listened to so many Wilpon apologists this week. Truly unbelievable. People saying, “They signed Cespedes so you can’t complain” and “Tejada isn’t that good so this move makes sense”. Umm please just shut up. This move was financially motivated. It wasn’t a roster move based on talent. You know how I know? Because Eric Campbell makes this team. Ruben Tejada is a major leaguer and Eric “Soup” Campbell is not. It’s that simple. We are giving a bum a roster spot. We are voluntarily playing with a 24 man roster, and it’s that exact strategy that hurt our chances prior to the trade deadline last season.

And my god the Soup apologists came out of the woodwork this week too. I’ve never seen so many goddamn Soup apologists in my entire life. I’ve seen people say “Well Soup’s not that bad” and “You’ve got to look at his advanced stats” and “He sees a lot of pitches” and “He makes good contact”. And on and on and on. Yeah I agree. Soup sees so many pitches before he strikes out. I mean you really need to look at his quality ground out percentages and his fly out contact rates. You really gotta focus on all the Soupermetrics. Everyone please just can the Soup crap.

And as far as Tejada goes, whatever. I’m over it. It’s been 163 days since Utley’s takeout slide, and I ain’t over that. But it only took me 24 hours to get over Ruben’s release. I will say one last thing. I’ve seen people say “Ruben Tejada won the SS job from Wilmer Flores down the stretch in 2015″. That is a complete and utter fallacy. The reality is Flores sucks at SS, so Terry threw Ruben back out there last summer. Ruben Tejada is funny. First we hated him. Then we got used to him. Enough time passed, got so we depended on him. That’s Metstitutionalized.

Cabrera Magically “Healed”: And in a related story, Tejada was released and overnight Asdrubal’s knee injury magically “healed”. He was supposed to be inactive for two weeks and miss Opening Day while rehabbing. Ruben gets released, and Asdrubal Cabrera is riding a stationary bike the next day. Now he’s taking grounders and preparing to hit again. I’m sure the Mets aren’t rushing him back to appease the fan base or anything like that. Speaking of rushing back, Jose Reyes was seen running on the underwater treadmill rehabbing his hammy in Port St. Lucie. He should be ready for Opening Day 2011.

Game Notes:

On Monday, the Mets lost 9-2 to the Tigers. Wilmer Flores and Kevin Plawecki put on a multi-hit show. The bench squad coming through. Plawecki better get the goddamn backup catcher job. Seth Lugo was sharp again. He’s been sharp all spring, and he’s going to be one of the first pitchers on deck in AAA. Hansel Robles gave up a ding dong.

On Tuesday, the Mets won 8-6 over the Marlins. Noah Syndergaard dominated and is so ready to go. Antonio Bastardo got shelled. Outfielder Travis Taijeron won’t stop mashing, but he’s definitely not a prospect. Just another spring legend.

On Thursday, the Mets won 6-5 over the Marlins. Beat em again. Jacob deGrom finally looked good in a spring start. His back was seemingly back. Steven Matz pitched in relief in this game and got rocked. He’s also looked rusty. Yoenis Cespedes got hit by a pitch on the hand during the game but is supposedly fine. His hip has also been balky, but he’s playing through it. Hopefully it’s just spring soreness and not early onset METS syndrome.

On Friday, the Mets lost 12-7 to the Nationals. Big Sexy was Real Ugly. But Bartolo Colon is a vet, and he spends the spring experimenting and working out his “kinks”. If I remember correctly, he had an awful spring in 2015, and then he went on to win 8 games in April and May. So spring really is meaningless. Jim Henderson pitched great again. His velocity has been in the low to mid 90s. I think he’s going to make the pen now that we cleared a 40 man roster spot with the release of Tejada. David Wright finally debuted. Juan Lagares hit a solo ding and Michael Conforto hit a Grand Dong.

Saturday’s game was a rainout.

On Sunday, the Mets lost 9-4 to the Red Sox. Thor was sharp but apparently his hair was getting in his way, and he says he needs a haircut. Bastardo and Jerry Blevins were awful again.

Bullpen Struggling and Bench Short: It’s spring training so nothing really matters. That being said, Anthony Bastard, Jerry Blevins, and Hansel Robles have been god awful. The pen is a concern. As I said in my Mets season preview, it’s the biggest risk for derailing our season. That and our lack of depth in the infield are real problems. The Mets have raved about our infield depth. How they stockpiled infielders. We are so flush with infielders this year. So much so that we threw Ruben to the curb like a sack of trash on pickup day. If we are so deep, why are Soup and rookie Matt Reynolds making this team? If we are so deep, why is Wilmer Flores running around the infield like Robin Williams in that restaurant at the end of Mrs. Doubtfire? Pretending to be a SS and then changing in the bathroom and running over to 3B. Scurrying back and forth between the bases. Hellooooooo!!!!!

Wilmer Flores is our backup first basemen too. Well other than as a runner, he hasn’t stepped foot on the base in a major league game or a spring game. Ray Ramirez is not a doctor he just plays one on TV. Wilmer Flores is supposed to be a first basemen but he’s never played one on TV. Wilmer is supposedly going to see some game action there this week, and Keith Hernandez is expected to help him with the move. Flores just has to help Keith move first.

Wright Walks: Like Lazarus in the Bible, David Wright finally rose up and walked this week. My sources said he went 1 for 5 in a wiffle ball game near Tradition Field. Unfortunately, he struggled to hit the wind aided breaking ball. But in all seriousness, as I said above he played this week. He debuted on Friday and played Sunday too. Hopefully he’s ready for Opening Day. We pray.

Lagares/Cespedes Freaky Friday: On Friday against the Nationals, Terry played Gold Glove CF Juan Lagares in LF and Gold Glove LF Yoenis Cespedes in CF. Terry Collins is seemingly trying to create some sort of Freaky Friday gold glove body switch scenario. Terry did this again on Sunday. Terry said he may do this during the regular season to ensure Cespedes gets into a routine in CF. Stop it Terry. I get versatility is good but playing guys out of position for the sake of “routine” is so dumb. Start them where they belong and stop this crap.

Alderson Says Mets Have Money: After the Tejada release, the media folks asked Alderson if the move was about money. They asked him if the team would have the flexibility to add payroll during the season. As he counted out a bunch of singles on the press conference table in front of him Alderson said, “Nah bro actually I’m doing pretty good with money right now.”

HarveyDay Opening Day: The Mets tabbed Matt Harvey the 2016 Opening Day starter. I love this move. After his World Series performance and injury comeback in 2015, he totally deserves it. Plus deGrom has looked slightly behind the other studs this spring. He definitely has not been on the level of Matt Harvey or Thor as far as velocity is concerned. But I honestly think he’s just a smart pitcher. He’s been working on off-speed and breaking pitches. He’s conserving his energy on the fastball. Definitely not fully exerting himself. I’m confident he’ll be ready to bring it when the season starts. Maybe he’s a little fatigued from all the innings last year. Maybe he’s fine. But I do think getting him out of the spotlight the first few days of the regular season could be good either way.

Spring Is So Meaningless: This week, Marlins hitting coach Barry Bonds beat the Marlins actual players in a batting practice home run derby. And Bartolo Colon allegedly hit two batting practice home runs on different days both of which struck trees. Bartolo is officially El Leñador which is Spanish for the The Lumberjack. He’s just slashing and burning the Port St. Lucie forests with his fire dingers. Hopefully once he burns the whole place down, we can head north and finally play some real ball.

My Best Guess: Predicting the 2016 American League West

On By themetssiah5 Comments

The_Rich_texan_tapped_out

(This is one post in a series of posts where I will be predicting the outcome of each MLB division. The final post will include full 2016 MLB postseason predictions.)

Last year, all the talking heads had the Seattle Mariners playing the Washington Nationals in the World Series. A complete swing and miss. Not even close. The Mariners sucked and the Nationals…well they kind of sucked too. For what it’s worth, I never thought the 2015 Mariners were going to make the World Series. I thought they had a weak bullpen. And as it turned out, they did have a weak bullpen and lost a bunch of close games during the season. And it didn’t help that Robinson Cano struggled while playing hurt for half the season. Houston finally emerged with a strong young core in 2015, after a calculated rebuilding process. The Rangers made a run in the second half and overtook the Astros to win the freaking division. The Angels lagged behind the two Titans from Texas and the A’s stunk. Here’s what I see in 2016:

AL West: 1) Houston Astros (x) 2) Texas Rangers (wc) 3) LA Angels 4) Seattle Mariners 5) Oakland A’s

Houston is my AL World Series pick. I love the addition of Ken Giles as their closer. Really bolsters that bullpen. Carlos Correa is going to get MVP votes. Dallas Keuchel could win Cy Young again. They even added Doug Fister on the cheap which is a nice get for their rotation. If they need another arm midseason, they will trade for it.

Texas is a close second to Houston in the AL West. They had the third ranked offense in 2015, so this team is in no way offensively challenged. They had bad starting pitching last season, but I love Yu Darvish being back from his TJ surgery. Plus Cole Hamels is a real strong veteran winner that they incorporated into their rotation at the trade deadline last season. I like their chances of being a well rounded club all season long in 2016, and I see them snagging a Wild Card spot.

I really don’t like the rest of the division. The Angels are such jerks for letting Mike Trout waste away in his prime. They got Andrelton Simmons! Hooray! Now they have the best defensive SS. He certainly doesn’t protect Trout in the lineup. And they needed another outfielder because the platoon of Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry doesn’t cut it for a winning team. Jered Weaver is throwing 79 MPH batting practice fastballs this spring and has a mild spine condition aka Stage 1 Wright’s Syndrome. The career of C.J. Wilson has long been over. RIP Angels. Mike Scioscia is not a fan of advanced metrics and all those “analyticians” as he calls them. Well this year even the conventional stats will say the Angels stink.

Mariners made tons of moves this offseason. I think they added a bunch of mediocre pieces to replace a bunch of mediocre pieces. No net improvement in my eyes. I like the Nori Aoki addition to the outfield and Adam Lind has some pop. They added a couple mooks to their bullpen. Everyone seemingly loves that they acquired Wade Miley from the Red Sox for their rotation. Umm Miley is back end of the rotation garbage. Last season they were the pre-season World Series favorite. Whoops! I don’t see them being in the race this season either.

Oakland loves making moves to fake compete. They acquired Khris Davis from the Brewers. They re-acquired Jed Lowrie for SS. They even copied the popular formula of building a stacked bullpen by adding Ryan Madson and John Axford among others. And I am pretty sure all those pen arms will be available at the trade deadline when Billy Beane is holding his annual reliever rummage sale. They stunk last year, and they gonna stink this season. They should have never traded Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester in 2014. Beane blew it. Moneyball baby!

 

Other Divisional Predictions:

American League East

American League Central

The Great Backup Catcher Debate: Is Batting Above .200 Important?

On By themetssiah9 Comments

I must say, I have thoroughly enjoyed the backup catcher debate that has raged across Mets camp this spring. A few weeks ago, we heard that the Mets were thinking about starting last year’s rookie backup Kevin Plawecki in AAA Vegas to give him the opportunity to “continue to develop”. The Mets know Plawecki is a talented young player, and as we all know, development is absolutely impossible at the major league level. We certainly don’t want him to accidently stunt his growth by inadvertently being a major contributor on the major league roster on a daily basis. It’s better to have him rotting away at the MGM Grand in Vegas playing slots and smoking cigs while Wally Backman threatens to assault a nearby blackjack dealer.

But once this story broke, a big question arose. It’s the same question the Mets have had their Analytics Department researching since we lost backup catcher Ramon Castro in 2009. By the way, as an aside Ramon Castro was kind of the original Big Sexy. Look at his ridiculous file photo:

Ramon Castro

Anyway, back to the question that has baffled the statistical experts working for the Mets: Is batting above .200 important for a backup catcher?

Somehow this obvious goddamn question has been a head scratcher for the Mets. Since 2009 our answer has been a resounding NO. We rolled with Mike Nickeas from 2010-2012 and his astounding .180 career average. Then in 2013 we brought in Anthony “Golden Chin” Recker. Anthony Recker absolutely raked in 2013 to the tune of a .215 batting average, but then he regressed closer to his career .185 mark over the next two seasons. Now he is on Cleveland. I will truly miss his signature 3 pitch at-bat where he fouled two fastballs back to the screen and then struck out on an outside fastball. Occasionally he would hit the big freaking dinger though. Gotta love the dinger. Plus he was sooooo attractive. Three time Metssiah award winner for NYC’s sexiest backup catcher.

But Recker has not been our only offensive force backing up behind the dish. We had pig face Juan Centeno. He hit a cushy .164 in parts of 3 seasons (2013-2015) with the Mets. And now we have our most recent backup nominees: Johnny Monell aka “Mr. Vegas” and 2016 nominee for best spring training name Raywilly Gomez. Monell has a .161 career batting average and Raywilly Gomez has never had a major league AB. We just invited him to Spring Training like we were having a damn backup catcher picnic. And he’s not even going to win best spring name because that honor is going to pitcher Stolmy Pimentel.

Why oh why do we keep carrying these awful mooks on our major league roster? How are we still debating whether or not to carry Kevin Plawecki? Plawecki had a bad rookie season offensively. He struggled. He really did. When Travis d’Arnaud came back in 2015 it made a huge difference for us. But did I mention Kevin Plawecki struggled to the tune of a .219 batting average in his rookie season? For all you scienticians out there, you’ll notice that average is over .200. It’s infinitely better than every other person we’ve given the job to over the last 6 years. If Plawecki failed to develop any further and was a lifetime .219 hitter, he would be the best backup catcher we’ve had this decade. The Mets do realize backup catchers play all the time right? Stop the madness! Just give Plawecki the job and stop trying to make Raywilly Gomez happen. It ain’t happening.

My Best Guess: Predicting the 2016 American League Central

On By themetssiah5 Comments

royals ws

(This is one post in a series of posts where I will be predicting the outcome of each MLB division. The final post will include full 2016 MLB postseason predictions.)

The 2014 Royals lost in the World Series to the Giants, but they brought back roughly the same team in 2015. The robot projection computers have disliked the Royals the last three seasons. They disliked them before their 2014 World Series appearance. They picked against them in the spring of 2015. For some reason, the robots are still picking against them in 2016. Jesse Spector wrote a great article attempting to explain why this is the case. Although the robots are self-aware, they don’t yet know how to love, and they clearly don’t know how to detect the Royals “it factor”. It seems resilience, determination, and experience “Do not compute”. I think despite the skepticism of the robots, most experts predicted they would make the playoffs in 2015 by winning the AL Central. Then of course, we saw that they didn’t just make the playoffs. They got back to the World Series and won it all. Despite all their spending, the Tigers struggled with injuries and bad luck in 2015. The Indians have a young pitching staff that rivals the Mets staff, but they are lacking in the offensive department. The White Sox spent a bunch of money on free agents prior to 2015, but their season turned out to be a mess. The Twins didn’t spend anything per usual and were mediocre. Here’s what I see in 2016:

AL Central: 1) Kansas City Royals (x) 2) Detroit Tigers 3) Cleveland Indians 4) Chicago White Sox 5) Minnesota Twins

You can’t bet against Kansas City. They are young, they just won the World Series, and they have repeat potential. I know they lost Ben Zobrist. I know they lost Johnny Cueto. But Ian Kennedy can eat innings, and they were never wowing anyone with their rotation anyway. They have the same pesky grind it out offense, and an even better pen with Joakim Soria back in the fold. They’ll take the division again. 

Detroit sucked last year. But they had injuries, an awful bullpen, and bad luck. I like what Jordan Zimmerman and Justin Upton do for their rotation and lineup respectively. Cameron Maybin had a career year in 2015. Maybe he figured something out. Francisco Rodriguez can still finish games with the best of them which will help their pen which was dogshit last season. I see them getting more production from Victor Martinez this year. And my boy Michael Fulmer is going to come up and have an impact in their rotation or bullpen. The Mets have been breeding strong arms, and this guy is supposedly the real deal. That being said, the Tigers will be behind the other Wild Card teams and miss the playoffs. 

Cleveland has that deadly rotation with Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, and Carlos Carrasco. A sort of Mets lite rotation. But they didn’t fix their problems on offense in my opinion, and Michael Brantley could be out for a stretch to start the season due to offseason shoulder surgery. I suppose they did add former Mets Juan “Hog Show” Uribe and Marlon “Biogenesis” Byrdman. But they needed a big bat. They pulled a Mets 2014/2015 in the offseason. We added old deteriorating Michael Cuddyer last offseason, when we really needed an actual big bat. Then we got Yoenis Cespedes midseason. Maybe they will do the same thing and have a big second half.

The White Sox are completely out. Sell sell sell! They are going to blow it all up midseason. White Sox Executive Vice President Ken Williams better pick up a copy of Windy Shitty: Theo Epstein’s Guide to Tanking in Chicago. They had a mediocre pitching staff last season and big time problems on offense. And a roll of Todd Frazier duct tape mixed with some Brett Lawrie crazy glue ain’t gonna patch the holes in this sinking ship. Plus DH Adam LaRoche just pulled a Michael Cuddyer by surprise retiring with money still on his contract. No matter how quickly they patch them holes they just keep opening up. Maybe they will spend that extra LaRoche money on another big bat to keep patching their crummy lineup. But I think it’s more likely they are posting a “Chris Sale for Sale” sign at the trade deadline. Book it.

Minnesota was .500 last season. They supposedly had an extremely “lucky” season by all advanced metrics and standards, and it still wasn’t good. They added a first basemen from Korea Byung-ho Park but not much else. I don’t expect much from them.

Other Divisional Predictions:

American League East

My Best Guess: Predicting the 2016 American League East

On By themetssiah7 Comments

new-york-yankees-third-baseman-alex-rodriguez

(This is one post in a series of posts where I will be predicting the outcome of each MLB division. The final post will include full 2016 MLB postseason predictions.)

I made some good calls and some big blunders in my 2015 MLB predictions. In the AL East, I sold all my shares in the Yankees and Red Sox before the season. The 2015 Red Sox were bad so I was right on that pick. However the Yankees made the playoffs, so I was way off on that one. Other than the Rays, the AL East teams all share the common strength of big time offensive firepower. The Red Sox went so big on offense in 2015, that they forgot you actually need competent pitching to compete. The Yankees lacked a true ace, and it hurt them in the Wild Card game. The Blue Jays scored more runs than any other team in the league and added David Price at the deadline to lead their playoff push. The Orioles lacked the starting pitching and hitting to compete with their division rivals. The Rays had the pitching advantage but couldn’t hit. Here’s what I see in 2016:

AL East: 1) NY Yankees (x) 2) Toronto Blue Jays (wc) 3) Baltimore Orioles 4) Boston Red Sox 5) Tampa Bay Rays

I bet against the Yankees in 2015. I thought the Senior Citizens Brigade aka Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Carlos Beltran would decline into oblivion. I was dead wrong. A-Rod and Tex are so back. I won’t be betting against them this year. I think the three headed monster in the bullpen (Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, and Dellin Betances) can be historically good. The Yankees lacked an ace. And now they may have one in Luis Severino. Masahiro Tanaka had a torn UCL that would normally require TJ surgery. But seemingly he has a magic elbow with the mutant regeneration powers of Wolverine because it’s no longer an issue. He’s probably going to have a Cy Young caliber season too because they are the damn Yankees.

Toronto had the best offense by a ton. Now they have Troy Tulowitzki for a full season. They won’t be far off from their 2015 team offensive production. Hell they might surpass it. They did lose David Price though and replaced him with a bunch of mediocre starters namely J.A. Happ and Jesse Chavez. But Marcus Stroman is back and ready to emerge fully next season. I suppose they can always add a starter during the season if necessary, but they plan to just outscore everyone like last season. That strategy should work well for them again and lead to a Wild Card berth.

I think Baltimore is going to mash with Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, and Pedro Alvarez. They had the 5th ranked pen in 2015, and it is still strong with Darren O’Day coming back. Yovani Gallardo probably is a downgrade from Wei-Yin Chen but not by much. I think they will battle with their division rivals for much of the season but are ultimately inferior to the Yanks and Jays.

Boston added arguably the leagues best starting pitcher in David Price and the leagues best closer Craig Kimbrel aka Dr. Kimbrel. But I’m still not sold on their rotation. Clay Buchholz stinks. I’m not a fan of Joe Kelly. Donald Trump told me Hanley Ramirez at 1B is going to be a disaster. Pablo Sandoval got paid, and has seemingly decided to channel his inner Homer Simpson by gaining enough weight to qualify for disability. It’s a really ballin move. But it sure as hell won’t help the Red Sox win a championship. The Big Papi retirement tour is going to yield a lot of crappy plaques and gift baskets, but I don’t think it will end with a playoff appearance. I just don’t see it.

I don’t get why Buster Olney and others are bullish on Tampa Bay. Chris Archer is a stud, and they have good young pitchers. But their rotation was 11th in ERA last season, and they still only managed to finish around .500. Their offense was anemic though. They tried to address that by adding Corey Dickerson to their OF and Steve Pearce for a 1B platoon. But they are competing against the two top offenses in the league in the Yankees and Jays. I’m not buying into the Rays. I think the Yankees and Jays will remain at the top all season long with the other three teams looking to avoid the cellar.

Death To Depth: Penny Pinching Wilpons Place Ruben Tejada On Waivers

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For all of Spring Training, the Mets beat reporters have been saying the Mets plan to cut Ruben Tejada, trade Alejandro De Aza, and demote Kevin Plawecki. And all Spring I have been doubting their claims. Curse my damn logical brain. I forgot about the Wilpon trump card. Saving a couple of goddamn shekels. Ruben has been placed on waivers. His days as a Met are numbered. Why? Tejada was due 3 million bucks. They are dumping him before the season starts to get out of paying his salary. They are probably even getting out of paying his NLDS medical bills. Uh oh, I thought the Coupon Wilpon days were over. Nope. Don’t let the Cespedes signing fool you. The penny pinching is back. Hell it never left. Sic semper altitudo! Death to depth! Say no to depth! The team is full. Vote Soup/Monell 2016!

So are we just handing minor league SS Matt Reynolds the opening day job until Cabrera returns? Maybe. Is Eric Campbell aka Soupman going to start at 3B with Wilmer Flores at SS? Dear god no. But probably yes. This is a bad baseball decision. Sure, unproven minor league SS Matt Reynolds could wind up being good. But why in God’s name are we holding SS tryouts during our 2016 championship run season? There’s absolutely no reason to release a competent backup middle infielder especially considering the lack of supply across the league. If his performance this spring or during the season was bad, that would be a different story. But he is raking at the dish this spring.

Ruben is going to get claimed immediately. Not by one of the worst teams in the league. No he’s going to wind up on the Cardinals who just lost their SS Jhonny Peralta to injury. Or perhaps even…the Dodgers! That’s right folks. The Utley/Tejada Odd Couple buddy comedy is that much closer to becoming a reality. If they team up, I’m sure they will become best good friends.

I really can’t believe the Mets are doing this. By “this” I mean voluntarily getting rid of depth to save a few pennies. It’s not even about Ruben. He really isn’t even that good. I have had problems with Tejada for years. He’s been arguably my number one Mets scapegoat through the dark times (2009-2014). But my problem was always with the way he was used. He’s been the Mets day one starter at SS since like 2011. We used him like a starter when the team sucked, and he’s really a reserve infielder on a good team. Finally we build enough depth to use him in the right role, and we are essentially releasing him to save a couple million bucks. Squeeze those pennies Fred and Jeff. Squeeze them real tight.

This is a developing story, and Ruben is not technically gone yet. But he’s definitely packing his bags. If Alejandro De Aza is next on the chopping block and Kevin Plawecki starts the season in AAA, I am going to lose my mind. So long Ruben. We will never forget our last memory of you getting absolutely demolished. Also, see you in the playoffs when you’re playing for one of our chief NL rivals. I’m sure that won’t come back to bite us.

2016 Mets Season Preview: We Watched, Now We Win

On By themetssiah3 Comments

metswatch

We are three weeks away from the Mets Opening Night game in Kansas City. A fitting matchup that pits us against the team that ended our 2015 season. The team that celebrated their first World Championship in 30 years as the Mets watched from the dugout. Our fans watched the celebration at Citifield and on television. It stung. Even when I think about it now the series still stings. It has left a scar that Mets fans will bear forever. But the experience will make the team stronger and unite the players in their mission to bring the franchise its first World Championship since 1986. And thanks to Sandy’s offseason personnel maneuvers, we are in a great position to get back to the Fall Classic in 2016. And this time, I think we will have the experience and talent to get the job done.

Infield and Catching Preview:

Despite being a team built on elite pitching, the Mets continue to subscribe to the mantra “offense is the new defense”. This is especially true in the infield. That being said, the Mets replaced Daniel Murphy and Wilmer Flores up the middle with Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera. Walker and Cabrera are below average defenders. But Murph and Flores were so much worse. Murph and Flores really set the floor as far as advanced defensive metrics are concerned. Just brutal. So it should be nice to have experienced and near competent defenders up the middle for 2016. And I absolutely love having Neil Walkyear. In the contract year, when the payday is on the line, players are almost always at their best.

Asdrubal Cabrera is pretty much a shortstop impersonator at this point in his career. And he’s already back in New York getting platelet-rich plasma therapy on his knee and sleeping in an MRI machine. That being said, he should eventually return even if it’s not for Opening Day. And when he does he will represent an upgrade over Wilmer at the position. Plus, the guy has averaged nearly 17 dingers a season since 2011. He’s a real major leaguer, and I fully expect him to be a major contributor in 2016.

2016 is a huge year for Lucas Duda. He’s been one of the most productive offensive first basemen in the sport over the last two seasons. Top 10 in Wins Above Replacement at 1B. Top 10 in OPS. But up until the arrival of Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline last year, Duda had to be the big presence in the Mets lineup. Lucas had to be the guy. And Duda just never excelled in that spotlight. Well he doesn’t have to be that guy anymore. Now with Cespedes in town for a full season, Duda can be just another piece in a fairly stacked lineup. I expect big things from the gentle giant. He needs to continue to hit lefthanded pitching like he did in 2015. He needs to improve his approach against the breaking ball. Duda has two more seasons before he hits free agency. If he wants to cash in, he could really help his chances by improving upon his 2014/15 campaigns.

I have absolutely no confidence in David Wright and his ability to stay on the field. He has spinal freaking stenosis. My grandmother has spinal stenosis. David is dunzo. The doctors have no confidence in David’s ability to magically overcome this degenerative condition. The Mets loaded up on infield depth, seemingly signaling the organization has no confidence. Wright even appears to have no confidence. When they ask him about his injury, he just shrugs and says “I’m just taking it day by day”. I hope we make the playoffs and David is feeling strong enough to play at that time of the year. That’s my only hope for David this year. Other than that I expect nothing from him.

Travis d’Arnaud has been “Mr. Glass” his entire career. It’s always something with Travis. Baseball Reference projects he’ll have just over 300 ABs, which certainly represents a bearish forecast reflecting his injury history.

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I’m inclined to agree with this prediction because Travis has never shown once that he has the ability to put together a full season. That being said, I expect him to be one of the most productive offensive catchers in the league when he is on the field. He hit 12 home runs in just over 200 ABs last season. On the defensive side, his pitch framing has been praised. However, he struggled to throw out base stealers in the playoffs. He will need to improve that in 2016. And if d’Arnaud does somehow find a way to remain healthy and gets 400+ ABs, I fully expect him to be in the All-Star conversation.

Outfield Preview:

The Mets 2016 outfield has the potential to be among the most productive units in the league. Retaining Yoenis Cespedes was obviously huge. He’s a gold glove LF who will be trying his hand in CF for a full season. His defense in CF hasn’t been ideal over a small career sample size. But he’s a freak athlete, and he’ll be fine. And he’ll more than make up for any defensive shortcomings at the dish. I don’t expect him to match his career high 35 home runs from last season. I don’t expect him to bat .291. I expect him to regress to his career averages of around 25 home runs and around a .270 average. Which should make him the best hitter on the team by far. And as we saw last season, he’ll make everyone around him better. He’s just that kind of intimidating lineup presence.

Other than actually having him on the team, the best part about signing Cespedes is that it takes the pressure off of Michael Conforto. Remember in December when the Mets were planning on betting their entire 2016 season on a sophomore outfielder? Thank god that never came to fruition. Now Conforto can develop at the major league level. If he excels, then we are going to have an elite offense. If he stumbles…we can still have an elite offense. Conforto looked fantastic in his rookie season. He grinded out every at bat like a veteran. Unbelievable pitch recognition. The metrics said his 2015 defense in LF was acceptable. But we’ll have to see how he fares over the course of a full season. We will also expose him to more lefthanded pitching this season. And again, if he struggles against lefties we have the luxury of playing Juan Lagares in CF and Cespedes in LF.

Curtis Granderson was the Mets offensive MVP over all of 2015. On this there can be no debate. He came back from a shitty 2014 debut and shined in the leadoff spot. He hit for power, he drew walks, and he was even nominated for a gold glove in RF. His 2015 season at the plate was among the best of his career. I expect a regression offensively. However, I still expect him to remain among the Mets most productive hitters and biggest power threats. Pray for health. He’s going to be 35 come Opening Day. We need him at the top of the order to get back to the dance.

Bench Preview:

Depth. We finally have it. Thank the old gods and the new. Am I worried about “Mr. Glass” Travis d’Arnaud? No not really. Because we have another young developing stud in Kevin Plawecki. He wasn’t very good last year. He hit .219. But he was a rookie, and he’s going to develop and grow in 2016. The other Mets beat writers keep saying he should start the season at AAA. They are insane. He will start at the major league level, and he will wind up playing all the time when Mr. Glass goes down.

Wilmer Flores is our super-sub. And by that I mean Flores is now our starting SS because Asdrubal is injured. Or is he our starting 3B with Wright being hurt? That is why teams need depth. Your super-sub becomes a starter every other week all season long. That’s how they make a goddamn living. But assuming Cabrera and Wright eventually come back, Wilmer is going to be busy filling in at every infield position. He’s never played 1B at the major league level. He stinks defensively at SS, 2B, and 3B. I’m guessing that trend will continue at 1B. That being said, he’s the only real proven major league insurance we have for Duda, Wright and Cabrera. So hopefully two of those three starters are healthy at any given time all season long. Just cross your fingers because the lack of real depth at 1B/3B is probably our most glaring weakness. One injury to Duda and we are in a bit of trouble. Did somebody say Soup?

Speaking of Soup, Eric Campbell is likely to make the Opening Day roster now that Cabrera is hurt. You want a preview? Here’s your preview: Soup sucks.

Ruben Tejada is still here. With Cabrera and Wright injured, Wilmer Flores is playing 3B and Tejada is the starting SS. And Wilmer is going to play quite a bit of 3B considering Wright hasn’t logged a single Grapefruit League inning thus far. The Tejada trade rumors continue to persist. I think they are BS. He just won’t go away. We keep trying to get rid of him. The competition we bring in at SS doesn’t matter. No matter how big a guy might be, Ruben takes him on. You beat Ruben with your legs, he comes back with a glove. You beat him with a glove, he comes back with a bat. And if you beat him with a bat, you better finish him, because he’ll keep comin’ back and back until one of you is cut.

The Mets backup outfielders are starting caliber. This is the best crop of backup outfielders we’ve had in years. A real two-headed platoon monster on the bench waiting to be unleashed. Juan Lagares is going to start against lefties. I imagine he will come into games for defense almost every night. Alejandro De Aza is going to be the primary lefthanded hitting pinch hitter off the bench. Juan Lagares can really hit lefthanded pitching. Alejandro De Aza can really hit right handed pitching. Kirk Nieuwenhuis could never really hit any pitching. The upgrade is going to be so significant. If somebody gets hurt, we will have actual productive starters to slide in. I’m so grateful. And I also call BS on the De Aza trade rumors.

We also have 2B Dilson Herrera and SS Matt Reynolds waiting in the wings at AAA.

Starting Rotation Preview:

The starting pitching is our everything. It’s what we are built upon. One rotation, under Warthen, unhittable, with power and strikeouts for all. Our rotation of studs has a chance to be the best single season staff of all time. That’s not an outrageous claim. That’s not Mets fan bias. It is a fact. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard are absolute horses. I’m not going to sit here and make career predictions for them even though it’s so tempting. That is way too hard to project and dependent on way too many factors. But I fully expect Matt Harvey, in his second season coming off TJ surgery, to dominate the NL. We’ve seen this happen historically with pitchers in their second year back from TJ. Plus he’s re-incorporating his deadly slider into his repertoire. Mike Petriello from MLB.com wrote a great article showing how the spin on Harvey’s slider improved over the course of last season as he became more comfortable on the mound. Harvey made slider related adjustments towards the end of July in 2015. The results?

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Bottom line is expect big things from a healthy Harvey.

Jacob deGrom has been the best pitcher on the team the last 2 seasons. I hope the 2015 workload and playoff innings have no effect on his 2016 performance. If he’s able to overcome any workload related fatigue, then he should be a Top 5 NL pitcher and Cy Young candidate. Noah Syndergaard has a chance to be the most dominant pitcher on the staff. The guy throws a 100 MPH with pinpoint control. Sports Illustrated included Thor on their list of Top 5 pitchers at risk of injury in 2016 as a result of his increased workload in 2015. Don’t even click the link and read the article. Just pray that we are blessed for once. Light your candles for Thor.

Steven Matz looked fantastic in his few regular season starts and postseason appearances. I think he’s an early favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. He’s another injury risk because of his size and delivery, but it’s okay. Why? Because once again we have the depth. We have Big Sexy Bartolo Colon gobbling up innings. We have our other elite hard throwing stud Zack Wheeler on the mend from his TJ surgery but expected back in June/July. We even have reinforcements in AAA in the form of Logan Verrett and possibly Sean Gilmartin if he doesn’t make the Opening Day bullpen.

Bullpen Preview:

I think our bullpen presents the single biggest risk of derailing our quest to return to the World Series. Nobody is worried about Jeurys Familia. He was among the most dominant closers in the game last season, and he should be again this season. But there is always injury risk and behind him we lack a viable tested 9th inning option. I love Antonio Bastardo and Jerry Blevins as late inning lefthanded relievers. But they are not closers. Bastardo is more likely to be a full inning option as he has had success against righthanded and lefthanded hitters in his career. But he’s not an elite late inning option. Addison Reed has closing experience, but he’s never been consistent. He spent time in the Diamondbacks minors league system last season for Christ’s sake. I think Hansel Robles has the best chance to break out in 2016 and serve as a top setup man. He throws 95+ consistently and his secondary pitches looked better as the season went on. By not acquiring a late inning reliever other than Bastardo, the Mets have made a big bet on Robles in 2016. If his command improves he should be a strong late inning weapon. But again I’m saying “if”. The bullpen is the only area where we are full of “ifs” outside of Familia. Luckily bullpens across the league are typically big “ifs”. So we have a lot of company in that department. Erik Goeddel may also make the team although he has battled spring injuries. Former Brewers closer Jim Henderson has also had a strong spring, but we would need to add him to our 40 man roster if he’s going to make the Opening Day team.

2016 Prediction:

I see the Opening Day 25 Man Roster as:

Starters: 1) C Travis d’Arnaud 2) 1B Lucas Duda 3) 2B Neil Walker 4) SS Wilmer Flores 5) 3B David Wright 6) OF Michael Conforto 7) OF Yoenis Cespedes 8) OF Curtis Granderson

Bench: 9) OF Juan Lagares 10) OF Alejandro De Aza 11) C Kevin Plawecki 12) SS Ruben Tejada 13) IF/OF Eric Campbell

Rotation: 14) SP Matt Harvey 15) SP Jacob deGrom 16) SP Noah Syndergaard 17) SP Steven Matz 18) SP Bartolo Colon

Bullpen: 19) CP Jeurys Familia 20) RP Antonio Bastardo 21) RP Jerry Blevins 22) RP Addison Reed 23) RP Hansel Robles 24) RP Erik Goeddel 25) RP Sean Gilmartin

My prediction for the season is that we will win the NL East, and we will win the World Series. For the first time in a long time, Vegas doesn’t even consider that a bold prediction. The main reason for my confidence is obviously the starting pitching. It’s so elite. I don’t think a single team in the league can possibly match it. I think we are going to beat up on the weak NL East teams (Marlins, Braves, Phillies), and ultimately we will outplay the Nationals down the stretch, yet again. Are the Cubs better than they were last season? Yes. Am I afraid of the Cubs? No. We destroyed them in the NLCS and I am confident we can do it again. Pitching wins championships. Unfortunately in 2015, we got beat by experience. Now we have the pitching and the experience. I think the 2016 Mets are deep and built to overcome injuries. Sure we need to get lucky. You always need luck. But in 2016, I think we have about as good a chance as we’ve ever had to win it all. If the Mets have me feeling confident, I can only imagine how confident the players must be. And I think that confidence combined with the overall talent on the roster will bring us to the next level. But no matter what happens this season, as Opening Day approaches the 2016 Mets have me feeling as confident as former Jets LB Bart Scott. See you in Kansas City this April.