Tag: marlins

Mets/Matz Get Devoured By Marlins

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Final Score: Marlins 10, Mets 3

Steven Matz looked great in the first inning. Really great! And that was about it. In the second inning, the Marlins blasted him. The inning started with two straight walks to Martin Prado and Chris Johnson and Matz was certainly getting squeezed a little bit. Keith and Ron were definitely getting on the home plate umpire for sure. But it didn’t end up mattering that much because Matz just kept giving up hit after hit. J.T. Realmuto got a single to load the bases. Then 8 hitter Adeiny Hechavarria singled to drive in two. After the pitcher bunted successfully, Dee Gordon singled in another run. After Marcell Ozuna popped out Christian Yelich singled to drive in two more. And to cap it all off, Giancarlo Stanton hit a 2 run bomb to make it 7-0. That was really the game. We scored a few in the 4th inning after a mini-rally. Yoenis Cespedes had an RBI single. They gave us a run on a wild pitch. Asdrubal Cabrera drove in our third run on a fielder’s choice, but again none of it ended up mattering.

Matz had a huge layoff before this start. I blame this crummy start on the MLB scheduling people and the bullshit first week full of days off that they gave us. I intend to write a sternly worded letter to the MLB offices. But Matz also stunk this spring, and he’s a rookie. So who the hell knows what to expect. We definitely don’t have the best team ERA in the NL anymore I can tell you that much.

The bottom line is our pitchers got rocked tonight. No way around that. And both teams played sloppy awful baseball tonight. Mistakes on both sides. But as George Contanza’s boss Mr. Kruger said many times, I’m not too worried about it. Why? Because generally speaking, so far this season our issues haven’t been about lack of effort or sloppy play. The problem has been almost exclusively the lack of offense. We only scored three runs tonight. Even if we got a quality start out of Matz, that may not have been enough to win. And the reason I’m not worried about the lack of offense is because it’s been the result of bad luck. Our team BABIP has been .235. BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) is the metric that tells you how often batted balls that aren’t home runs fall for hits. Essentially it’s the hitting luck metric. Typically 30% of balls in play fall for hits. We’re at 23.5%. Our BABIP is good for 28th in the league.

You can read about the metric here. But long story short, we’ve been unlucky thus far on offense. It’s been apparent from watching. Everything we hit finds a glove. At first I chalked it up to the Royals being the luckiest team on the face of the earth. But it continued against Philly and again tonight. Cespedes roped a ball that was caught by the second basemen in the 4th inning. And the game ended on a ball that was roped by David Wright that the shortstop snagged. Now it hasn’t all been bad luck. As I said in the series preview, Travis d’Arnaud and Curtis Granderson haven’t done much of anything so far. But bad luck has had a lot to do with our lack of offensive results. My point is the pendulum always swings the other way, and it will swing in our favor soon enough.

Other Notes:

Cabrera Bailed: Asdrubal Cabrera was mysteriously double switched out of the game in the 5th. There was no explanation from the booth regarding why. Terry said he wasn’t injured after the game. I’m guessing he got sick of our poo poo play and just bounced. He probably figured most of the crowd already left, and he could grab the 7 train unnoticed.

Murph King of the Dinger: Daniel Murphy hit another home run for the Nationals tonight. He’s going to punish us so bad when we play the Nationals. I can’t believe we refused to pay him and broke up the damn band. But whatever, we have to trust Sandy. At least for a few more weeks.

Soup Keeps The Highlights Coming: Eric Campbell struck out tonight and his bat went flying into the crowd. At this point the man is more than an auto-strikeout. He’s a freaking personal injury lawsuit waiting to happen. Maybe the Wilpons will become concerned about the litigation risk and banish him to Vegas. And for God’s sake if you’re going to fling your bat wildly at least fling it into the outfield and nail Giancarlo Stanton in the knee or something.

Papa deGrom To DL?: We used the entire bullpen tonight. We need fresh arms. Our choices are to put deGrom on paternity leave or put him on the DL. We’re hesitating to put him on paternity leave because if we do, then we can’t backdate any potential DL stint. I think at this point we should DL him and hope his lat is better next week. Pray.

Tomorrow: Noah Syndergaard vs. Jose Fernandez should be a real pitching showdown tomorrow. Unfortunately it’s going to get rained out. But be sure to head out to Citi Field for the 3 hour rain delay and spend $500 dollars on food so the Wilpons can buy back Piazza’s 9/11 jersey.

Series Preview: The Fish Have Arrived

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I fully expected to go into this series against the Marlins feeling confident after taking 2 of 3 from the Phillies over the weekend. Well that didn’t happen at all, and now I’m frightened by the invasion of the fish. They just split a weekend series against the Nationals in Washington. One game of the three game set was rained out. That’s a hell of a lot better than dropping a series to the Phillies at home. But they are still 1-3 because they lost two games to the Tigers to start the year. We get to face their top arm as well and lose Jacob deGrom on Wednesday due to his lat soreness. The Marlins big bats are off to a hot start. Dee Gordon starting right where he left off last season hitting .421 so far. Christian Yelich and Martin Prado have been raking as well. And Giancarlo Stanton is always a monster.

Pitching Matchups:

Game 1: Jarred Cosart vs. Steven Matz

Cosart had 3 starts against the Mets in 2015 with 3 no decisions. One was a brilliant 8 inning 2 hitter in Miami against our punchless lineup in April. In the other two starts he went 5.1 and 4.2 innings and didn’t fare as well. Asdrubal Cabrera is 3 for 9 against him in his career, Yoenis Cespedes is 2 for 6 with a dinger, Michael Conforto is 2 for 2, Lucas Duda is 2 for 6, Wilmer Flores is 4 for 10 with a dinger, and Juan Lagares is 3 for 7. Matz faced the Marlins once in Miami in September last year. He went 5.1 innings and gave up 2 runs. We could really use a big time start from our fourth ace tomorrow. We need to get off to a good start in this series and stop this brief skid. I guess that’s why it pays to have all these stoppers in the rotation.

Game 2: Jose Fernandez vs. Noah Syndergaard

In his first start of the 2016 season, Fernandez got roughed up a little bit by Detroit giving up 5 runs over 5 innings, but he struck out 13. The Mets don’t have a lot of career plate appearances against Fernandez because of all the time he’s missed recovering from his Tommy John surgery. In fact, we didn’t face him in 2014 or 2015. But he’s a beast, and he’s back to throwing 98 MPH. Thor dominated in his first start against KC. He never faced the Marlins during his rookie 2015 campaign. Thor vs. Fernandez is going to be must see TV assuming it doesn’t get rained out.

Game 3: Adam Conley vs. Logan Verrett

We were originally supposed to face Wei-Yin Chen in this game, but he was struck in the elbow by a liner on Opening Day against the Tigers. So his start is supposedly being pushed back. Since Conley is a lefty, I’m guessing we’ll see Lagares in this game and possibly Flores. Hopefully we don’t have to see Eric Campbell. Conley started against us once in September last year. He pitched 7 shutout innings in New York and got the win. Logan Verrett pitched 5 innings and gave up a run against the Marlins in September last year when we were conserving the innings of our big dogs. Hopefully he can come out of our pen and step up for Jacob deGrom. He doesn’t project as a frontline starter, but it’s nice to have guys like Verrett, Sean Gilmartin, Robert Gsellman, and Rafael Montero who can step up in a pinch with a start. As we all know, our pitching depth is our strength.

Things To Look For:

Offense: Umm maybe we should start hitting. I will certainly be looking for more offense. I think everyone will be looking for our offense. I know it’s cold, but I believe it was a French philosopher who once said “I hit, therefore I win.” Regarding the cold weather this weekend Cespedes said, “This is not a time to be playing baseball. It’s a time to be home sleeping.” While I’m totally a believer in winter hibernation, I definitely think Cespedes better get used to the weather pretty quickly. After all, October tends to be pretty damn chilly.

The Pen Is Mightier Than Expected: Until Sunday, the Mets pen hadn’t given up an earned run. Jim Henderson has looked great. They’ve all seemingly shaken off their spring rust and started strong. Will it continue? Is it sustainable? We shall see.

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Grandyman MIA: After being our MVP in 2015, Curtis Granderson has been MIA in the leadoff spot to start the season. He’s a career .238 hitter in April, so I guess you could call him a slow starter. It’s not going to be easy getting things going against Jose Fernandez and then the lefty Conley on Wednesday. But we need him. He was our constant on offense in 2015. He’s our table setter. Let’s hope his boy hitting coach Kevin Long gives him some good advice before the series starts. That is assuming Long isn’t too busy chasing Marlins hitting coach Barry Bonds for an autograph.

 

My Best Guess: Predicting the 2016 MLB Playoffs and Player Awards

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Major League Baseball has such parity. Sure we can probably narrow down the field of competition to around 15 teams before the season even starts. Roughly half the league is actually competing for a championship. But that’s a hell of a lot better than the annual three team dance in the NFL or the one team in the NBA that has a chance to win (I’ll give you a hint, it rhymes with Olden Plate Warriors). Jayson Stark from ESPN (and Winterfell) writes a brilliant annual column showing how the parity in MLB compares to that of the NFL. It really gives you an idea of how even the MLB playing field is, and how hard it is to predict the outcome of the season. Honestly, if you want the real crystal ball just look at the Vegas lines. Vegas knows better than me or any of the other baseball writers. That being said, if you want some of my magic insight, here are my playoff and player award predictions for 2016:

The Metssiah’s Player Award Predictions:

AL MVP: Manny Machado. Yeah I didn’t pick Mike Trout. I’m crazy!! Machado had a breakout season last year, he’s young, and he’s part of a beastly lineup. Plus my scouts (google images) say Machado’s head looks enormous this spring. Maybe he’s been getting his swoll on this offseason. I’m no phrenology expert, but big head equals big season.

AL Cy Young: Chris Archer

AL Rookie of the Year: Byron Buxton

NL MVP: Bryce Harper. Again. That being said, Yoenis Cespedes is going off at 25 to 1 in Vegas for MVP. I like that sweet action.

NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer. Yeah I’m betting against my boys, but I’ll say Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard finish 2, 3 and 4 respectively so I feel better about the betrayal.

NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager. But Steven Matz will probably be in the conversation.

 

The Metssiah’s American League Playoff Predictions:

WC Game: Rangers over Blue Jays

ALDS: Royals over Rangers and Astros over Yankees

ALCS: Astros over Royals

 

The Metssiah’s National League Playoff Predictions

WC Game: Nationals over Pirates

NLDS: Cubs over Nationals and Mets over Giants

NLCS: Mets over Cubs

 

World Series Prediction: Mets over Astros

 

Also, for my previously published divisional predictions see these posts:

American League East

American League Central

American League West

National League East

National League Central

National League West

My Best Guess: Predicting the 2016 National League East

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(This is one post in a series of posts where I will be predicting the outcome of each MLB division. The final post will include full 2016 MLB postseason predictions.)

Before the 2015 season started, the Nationals were heavy favorites in the NL East. The experts saw them winning 100 games and representing the NL in the World Series. A lot of people also predicted the Marlins would have a big season after they made a number of offseason moves. These moves included the acquisition of utility infielder Martin Prado, 2B Dee Gordon, and OF Ichiro Suzuki. The Mets were seen as a pitching rich team with more young pitching on the way midseason. But the experts unanimously agreed that the Mets were short an impact bat. The rebuilding Phillies and Braves were expected to be the cellar dwelling duo that actively reinforced the division’s reputation as the NL Least. Well in the end the Marlins were terrible, and they joined the Phillies and Braves at the forefront of MLB’s list of bad teams. The Nationals had tons of injuries, a horrible manager, and by September the Nationals hit rock bottom when their new closer Jonathan Papelbon choked out NL MVP Bryce Harper in the dugout on national television. As expected, the Mets had elite pitching and an absolutely anemic offense through July. However, once they acquired Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline, the offense went from worst to first and launched the Mets to the NL East crown and a World Series appearance. Not much changed this offseason as far as the NL East big picture is concerned. The Braves and Phillies are still rebuilding. The Marlins are still pretending they have a chance to be good. The Mets and Nationals should duke it out for the division crown. Here’s what I see in 2016:

NL East: 1) NY Mets (x) 2) Washington Nationals (wc) 3) Miami Marlins 4) Atlanta Braves 5) Philadelphia Phillies

I see the Mets and Nationals battling for the division all season long. As I wrote in my Mets season preview, I see the Mets winning the World Series for a number of reasons. The main reasons being their unrivaled starting pitching and the fact that they have the postseason experience now. We all saw what the Royals did in the 2015 postseason. They were so composed. So battle tested. I expect the Mets to have that same moxie in 2016. And the Mets get to have a full season of Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz now. Not to mention the eventual return of Zack Wheeler who had arguably the best raw stuff of the entire group of pitchers. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard could all realistically win the Cy Young. I think the Mets have a deep lineup too with the potential to score a lot of runs. Michael Conforto is probably going to breakout. Neil Walker is going to have a big contract year. Yoenis Cespedes is going to make everyone around him better. Bullpen could be a weak spot, but as long as Jeurys Familia is closing, it won’t be that big of a problem. A pen arm can always be added down the stretch.

That being said, the Nationals aren’t going to be a pushover. And I think both the Mets and Nationals will wind up in the playoffs. The Nationals stumbled due to injuries last season and appalling managing by Matt Williams. Plain and simple. Sure the Mets came up big against them when they had to. Sure Yoenis Cespedes ended the Nationals career of Drew Storen with that September home run off of him that led to a sweep and ultimately locked up the division. But the Nationals ultimately stumbled more than the Mets truly beat them. The Nats still have a stacked rotation and lineup. I doubt Ryan Zimmerman will stay healthy in the same way I doubt David Wright will stay healthy for the Mets. Jayson Werth will probably rebound after his injury plagued 2015 which included a 5 day stint in jail for reckless driving. I think by season’s end, they will have the MVP (Bryce Harper) and the NL Cy Young winner (Max Scherzer). Stupid Daniel Murphy will probably provide a tremendous boost to their offense while simultaneously committing blunder after blunder in the field. Same story as his stint with the Mets. They revamped their bullpen, but I don’t really like any of their new pieces. They added former Met castoff Oliver Perez and Met farmhand Yusmeiro Petit. Woop-de-freakin-doo. They also have a Syndergaard-esque prospect due to come up in Lucas Giolito. He could really change the game down the stretch. I think the Nats will win a wild card after beating up on our weak division.

The Marlins hired Don Mattingly to manage and Barry Bonds to be their hitting coach. Just to be clear, these two guys are coaching. They are not joining the actual 2016 Marlins roster, in their playing prime, as a result of some tear in the space time fabric. The Marlins were 71-91 last season. They were awful. You can blame their former manager Mike Redmond and their GM Dan Jennings all you want. But I think this team stinks. Sure they have potential MVP candidate Giancarlo Stanton. But he gets hurt every season. He’s already battling knee pain again this spring. Dee Gordon won the batting title last season at 2B for the Marlins, and they still only won 71 games. He’s going to regress in 2016. Jose Fernandez is back for a full season at the top of their rotation. That is going to have a huge impact because he is so elite. And they did add Wei-Yin Chen as a number 2 starter. But they lost Carter Capps out of the pen this spring to TJ surgery. He was going to challenge for the closer’s job. Maybe the Marlins improve a bit. Maybe they go .500. But I don’t see them being much better than that.

The Phillies and Braves are in rebuild mode. They are both going to be miserable to watch and the Mets and Nationals are going to destroy them every other week when they play. The Braves made great offseason trades to continue to bolster their already stocked farm system. They robbed the D-Backs in that Shelby Miller deal. Dansby Swanson seems to be an elite future SS, and they also netted top pitching prospect Aaron Blair. The trade of their existing SS Andrelton Simmons netted them pitcher Sean Newcomb. They are stocking up on young pitching. Everyone’s trying to find a way to beat the Mets at their own game.

The Phillies waited way too long to start their rebuild, but they finally did start. They dished Cole Hamels last season. They even traded young closer Ken Giles to the Astros in the offseason. They signed some scrub players to fill out the pitching staff namely Jeremy Hellickson for the rotation and David Hernandez for the bullpen. They are excited to see what Maikel Franco does at 3B in his first full season and what Odubel Herrera does in the OF in his second season. But it’s going to be a brutal year in Philly. I’m sure the fans have their batteries primed and ready to pelt the Philly Phanatic.

 

Other Divisional Predictions:

American League East

American League Central

American League West