Series Preview: Chase Utley; Blood or Mercy?

On May 9, 2016 By themetssiahLeave a comment

thor utley

Blood or Mercy?: This is a series Mets fans have been waiting for since Chase Utley did his best scumbag impression in the NLDS. The fans have not forgotten. The masses want blood. They are screaming for it like the Roman citizens at the Coliseum. Kill! Kill! Kill! The unwritten rules of the game tell us that Chase Utley is going to get a baseball thrown at his back, his butt, his arm or his leg. The rules set by our baseball forefathers say he must be rocked in the fleshy part of his body. That is the price for his sin. Will we see it? I do not know. On the record, Terry will say that nothing is going to happen. But can he control his pitching staff? Can he control Noah Syndergaard? Thor has already shown us that he can be a wildcard. His World Series opening pitch head hunting move undoubtedly put the league on notice. So what will it be? Blood or mercy?

My vote is for mercy. I hate to give the Royals credit, but they had it right. We won the war when we beat the Dodgers in the NLDS. From my perspective the slate has been wiped clean, and this season is a whole new war. Also, if I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times, injury can derail our season. One bad hit by pitch, and we could be completely screwed. If we start a bean ball war, the next thing you know Yoenis Cespedes could take a ball off the hand or Curtis Granderson could take one off the wrist. No. We simply cannot risk it. We won the series, the rules have been changed, and Utley is a grey beard potentially in his final season. He’s not worth wasting any more thought or energy on. I just hope that Thor and the other Mets pitchers agree.

Pitching Matchups:

Game 1: Steven Matz vs. Scott Kazmir

Scott Kazmir is off to a rough start. He’s 2-2 with a 5.68 ERA. He’s only gone 6+ innings in 3 of his 6 starts. He’s given up 4+ runs in 4 of his 6 starts. His last start against Tampa Bay he went 6.2 innings with 9 Ks despite giving up 4 runs. Asdrubal Cabrera is 2 for 17 against Kazmir, Yoenis Cespedes is 0 for 6, Lucas Duda is 1 for 5, Curtis Granderson is 3 for 11 with a home run, Rene Rivera is 2 for 7, David Wright is 2 for 5, and Alejandro De Aza is 3 for 5. Matz’s second career start was in LA last July, and he went 6 shutout innings with 8 strikeouts. In the playoffs last year, Matz took the loss in Game 4 of the NLDS going 5 innings and giving up 3 runs.

Game 2: Jacob deGrom vs. Alex Wood

Alex Wood is also off to a terrible start. He’s 1-3 with a 5.18 ERA. We crushed him in relief in the NLDS. Asdrubal Cabrera is 2 for 3 against Wood, Wilmer Flores is 3 for 10 with a home run, Lucas Duda is 2 for 10, Curtis Granderson is 1 for 8 with a home run, Neil Walker is 2 for 7, and David Wright is 3 for 7. Last July, Jacob deGrom shut out the Dodgers in New York over 7.2 innings with 8 Ks. And he beat them twice in the NLDS. God he was amazing in the NLDS.

Game 3: Noah Syndergaard vs. Kenta Maeda

Kenta Maeda has come over from Japan and been absolutely dominant. He’s 3-1 with a 1.66 ERA. He’s striking out people left and right. He went 6 innings, gave up 2 runs, and had 7 Ks against the Blue Jays last time out. Thor tossed a quality start in LA last regular season. And he took the loss in the Utley slide game in LA despite his 6.1 innings pitched, 3 runs, and 9 strikeouts. His dominant relief inning in game 5 was legendary. It should be an exciting matchup between Thor and Maeda.

Game 4: Bartolo Colon vs. Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw is just doing his Cy Young thing again. He’s 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA. He’s striking out everyone and walking nobody. I’m not exaggerating by the way. He has 64 strikeouts and 3 walks through 53 innings pitched. Yeah he’s pretty good. Wilmer Flores is 3 for 6 against Kershaw. The rest of the Mets have had very little success. David Wright is 3 for 14 and Lucas Duda and Grandy are a combined 2 for 20. In July at Citi Field, Bartolo dominated the Dodgers over 8 innings surrendering only one run. He was pitching when dirt bag Utley slid his way into the history books. He also had some big relief innings in Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS.

Things To Look For:

Walk Him Yo: Cespedes is tops in the NL in RBIs with 30 and tops in slugging percentage at .701. Yesterday, the Cubs swept the Nationals, and they walked Bryce Harper 6 times. After the game Tanner Roark accused the Cubs of playing “scared baseball”. I really hope that’s what Dusty Baker is teaching the Nats. To foolishly give a team’s best hitter pitches to mash. Obviously the Cubs strategy is a no brainer, and I applaud the Cubs for using it. I have to believe at some point NL teams will try and adopt this strategy with Yo right? I’m not trying to say that Yoenis Cespedes is as tough an out as Bryce Harper, but he’s the guy in our lineup that can burn you. And he’s burning everybody lately. I do think our lineup is deeper than Washington’s so it may be more challenging to employ such a strategy with Yo. But at some point teams may put him on base and choose to challenge the Streakmaster General Lucas Duda.

Cold Front Coming In: Speaking of Mr. Streak, Lucas Duda is hitting .200 in his last seven games, but he does have 3 home runs. Curtis Granderson is on a real cold streak right now with a .107 average in his last seven games. Wilmer Flores continues his season of ice going 0 for 5 yesterday and he’s hitting .159 on the season.

Lefty Love: The Mets will face three left-handed pitchers in this series (Kazmir, Wood, Kershaw). We have not had much success against lefties so far this season. Fingers crossed that we turn that around against LA.

Home Sweet Home?: The Dodgers are 5-8 at home this season? Maybe it’s a sample size thing, but if they are struggling at home for some actual reason I hope we exploit it.

Dodger Ranks: The Dodgers are in first place in the NL West, so they have been successful to start the season. But they are 13th in runs scored, 22nd in OPS, and 29th in home runs. They are 10th in ERA, 19th in bullpen ERA (4.16), and their run differential is +12 which is good for 10th in baseball. The robot computers knew the Cubs were going to be elite this season, but they also felt the Dodgers were going to be very successful. The robots liked the team Andrew Friedman assembled. So far they’ve done fine in the wins/losses department, but the offense has underwhelmed to date.

Hot Dodgers: Chase Utley leads the team with a .298 batting average. We may need to wait to see him until we throw our right-handers. Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .278 but only has 3 home runs to start the season. Joc Pederson is hitting .275 and leads the team with 6 home runs. Rookie Corey Seager is hitting .266 to start the season. Yasiel Puig got off to a hot start but has fizzled lately and his average is at .243.

Today: This series kicks off tonight at 10:10 eastern time. Honestly this west coast trip is killing me like they always do. I was up until 1:30 last night because my body is in west coast baseball mode. It’s going to be a rough week, but let’s hope some wins negate the lost sleep.

Here’s Harvey: Mets Take Finale and Split In San Diego

On May 8, 2016May 9, 2016 By themetssiahLeave a comment

harvey johnny

Final Score: Mets 4, Padres 3

This was not a pretty win. This was not a pretty series at all. The Mets had chances to score runs in the first inning, fifth inning, and eighth inning but failed to capitalize due to rally killing double plays off the bats of Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores, and Curtis Granderson. They had twelve hits and left eleven men on base including two in the ninth inning. A good team probably beats us in this game. Thank goodness we were playing the Padres.

All that being said, the Mets were able to get a rally going in the second inning due to some unlikely heroes. Kevin Plawecki hit a two out double and Eric Campbell drove him in with a single. Then Matt Harvey singled, Curtis Granderson walked, and Asdrubal drove in Harvey to make it 2-0. Yoenis Cespedes hit a solo shot in the third inning to make it 3-0. In the 6th inning, Harvey hit a one out double and with two outs Asdrubal drove in Harvey to give the Mets their fourth run.

Saved By The Bastard: In the 8th inning, with the score 4-3, Jerry Blevins and Addison Reed nearly blew the lead. Jerry gave up a leadoff single to Jon Jay. Then Addison Reed came in and gave up singles to Wil Myers and Matt Kemp. Terry then brought in Antonio Bastardo with the bases loaded and no outs. And The Bastard of Citi struck out Derek Norris, got an infield pop up from Melvin Upton Jr., and then struck out Alexei Ramirez. Bastardo saved the Mets asses today. Period. He threw all fastballs and managed to overpower the Padres in every way. It was a huge moment from Antonio in the early part of this season.

Fire Is Back: Matt Harvey only made a few bad pitches today. The most notable bad pitch was the one to Christian Bethancourt that resulted in a two run home run in the fifth inning. Other than that he really pitched a promising game. His velocity was back at 96-97 MPH. He had 10 strikeouts and gave up only 4 hits in 6 innings.

Lucky Break: In the fifth inning, after Harvey gave up the two run home run, he actually got a really lucky break. He struck out pitcher Andrew Cashner with two outs, but Plawecki couldn’t stop the ball and Cashner got to first base. It was ruled a wild pitch. Anyway Harvey proceeded to give up a double to Jon Jay (who killed us all series). Cashner was sent home and the play at the plate was ruled an out. Cashner was without a doubt safe but on replay review they upheld the bad call. Harvey lucked out, but the real embarrassment here is the umpiring crew. I really don’t understand how they get these calls wrong. I genuinely don’t get it. If the fans can all see the right call on replay, then how the hell do the mooks at headquarters continue to blow it? And what makes it even worse is that Gary Cohen, Ron Darling and the Mets booth consistently embarrass themselves. I love the Mets booth. I really do. But every time they speak out against replay they sound like absolute morons. They ripped into replay multiple times during this game. They talked about how it’s unnecessary and how it takes the fun out of the game. Shut up!!!!!!! Shut the hell up. Replay is a necessity. Hire robot umpires!! Get the calls right. But most of all stop calling for the league to go backwards and eliminate replay. Who wants to live in a world where we watch games and live with bad calls? That’s insanity.

Broadway Yo: Cespedes hit another home run. God he is so elite. We should sign more superstars. This Cespedes experience should eliminate any hesitation to give out big contracts ever again.

Asdrubal Is So Good: Speaking of great contracts, Asdrubal had two more hits and two more RBIs today. He’s such a professional at the plate, in the field, and in the clubhouse.

Errors and Balks: We made a bunch of awful plays in this game. Wilmer let a ball eat him up at second base in the late innings and almost blew a couple throws to Lucas Duda at first base. He was lucky none of these blunders resulted in errors. Jim Henderson also balked in a run. Again, he’s lucky that it didn’t cost us the game but please clean it the hell up.

Injury Night Terrors: Neil Walker fouled a ball off his shin yesterday. Asdrubal Cabrera fouled a ball off his foot in this game. Lucas Duda was hit by a pitch on his hamstring. We have been really lucky so far. But I’m worried about our depth. Wilmer Flores has not inspired any confidence this season (he went 0 for 5 in this game). Eric Campbell deserves a pat on the back today for his 2 hits, his RBI, and his great play to end the game. But he’s Eric “Soup” Campbell. I do not like the idea of seeing him for any stretch whatsoever.

The Sex Heard Round the World: I’m still not over the Bartolo Colon home run. A split against San Diego is not ideal, but a split where Bartolo hit a home run and Harvey had a dominant quality start ain’t so bad when it’s all said and done.

Tomorrow: The Cubs swept the Nationals. Jesus Christ the Cubs are good. But that means first place for the Mets! Hooray! Now we have a four game set in Dodgertown starting tomorrow. Steven Matz vs. Scott Kazmir. Mets young lefty stud vs. former young Mets lefty stud. Also Utleygate finally comes to a head. Do we show him mercy or do we draw blood? Series preview coming soon.

My Best Guess: Predicting the 2016 MLB Playoffs and Player Awards

On March 25, 2016March 25, 2016 By themetssiahLeave a comment

Major League Baseball has such parity. Sure we can probably narrow down the field of competition to around 15 teams before the season even starts. Roughly half the league is actually competing for a championship. But that’s a hell of a lot better than the annual three team dance in the NFL or the one team in the NBA that has a chance to win (I’ll give you a hint, it rhymes with Olden Plate Warriors). Jayson Stark from ESPN (and Winterfell) writes a brilliant annual column showing how the parity in MLB compares to that of the NFL. It really gives you an idea of how even the MLB playing field is, and how hard it is to predict the outcome of the season. Honestly, if you want the real crystal ball just look at the Vegas lines. Vegas knows better than me or any of the other baseball writers. That being said, if you want some of my magic insight, here are my playoff and player award predictions for 2016:

The Metssiah’s Player Award Predictions:

AL MVP: Manny Machado. Yeah I didn’t pick Mike Trout. I’m crazy!! Machado had a breakout season last year, he’s young, and he’s part of a beastly lineup. Plus my scouts (google images) say Machado’s head looks enormous this spring. Maybe he’s been getting his swoll on this offseason. I’m no phrenology expert, but big head equals big season.

AL Cy Young: Chris Archer

AL Rookie of the Year: Byron Buxton

NL MVP: Bryce Harper. Again. That being said, Yoenis Cespedes is going off at 25 to 1 in Vegas for MVP. I like that sweet action.

NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer. Yeah I’m betting against my boys, but I’ll say Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard finish 2, 3 and 4 respectively so I feel better about the betrayal.

NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager. But Steven Matz will probably be in the conversation.

The Metssiah’s American League Playoff Predictions:

WC Game: Rangers over Blue Jays

ALDS: Royals over Rangers and Astros over Yankees

ALCS: Astros over Royals

The Metssiah’s National League Playoff Predictions

WC Game: Nationals over Pirates

NLDS: Cubs over Nationals and Mets over Giants

NLCS: Mets over Cubs

World Series Prediction: Mets over Astros

Also, for my previously published divisional predictions see these posts:

American League East

American League Central

American League West

National League East

National League Central

National League West

My Best Guess: Predicting the 2016 National League West

On March 24, 2016March 23, 2016 By themetssiah1 Comment

Greinke

(This is one post in a series of posts where I will be predicting the outcome of each MLB division. The final post will include full 2016 MLB postseason predictions.)

2015 was supposed to be a 3 team race in the NL West. The Dodgers, Giants, and Padres were supposed to be in a dogfight until the end for the division crown. The Giants won the 2014 World Series. So you can understand why there were high expectations for the Giants in 2015. The Dodgers had Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw at the top of their rotation. Arguably the two best pitchers in the league. And the Padres absolutely dominated the 2014/15 offseason. New GM A.J. Preller traded and signed every star he could get his hands on. The D-backs were still considered young and not on the same level as the top 3 teams from a talent perspective. The Rockies had no pitching. They still have no pitching. Mainly because it is impossible to pitch in Colorado. They never had a shot in 2015 and at the moment it feels like they may never have a shot again.

That being said, the Giants season was ultimately derailed by injuries and the Padres experiment exploded in Preller’s face. A failure of massive proportions. The Dodgers rotation did not disappoint with Greinke and Kershaw arguably both having Cy Young seasons despite ultimately finishing behind Jake Arrieta. But the Dodgers Big Two lost to the Mets. Then Greinke and manager Don Mattingly left, and the Dodgers front office was forced to pick up the pieces. Here’s what I see in 2016:

NL West: 1) San Francisco Giants (x) 2) LA Dodgers 3) Arizona Diamondbacks 4) San Diego Padres 5) Colorado Rockies

San Francisco does the on again, off again championship thing. They won in 2010, 2012, 2014. 2016 is an on year so they have to win right? Wrong. Unless you believe absurd magic patterns are the new way to predict baseball World Championships. That being said they filled all their holes from 2015. They needed outfield depth, particularly a CF, and they got Denard Span. They needed top of the rotation support and they added Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Their rotation is super deep now. Madison Bumgarner at the top with veterans Jake Peavy and Matt Cain eating up innings. And young Chris Heston in the mix as well. That depth will make the difference for them in the battle for the NL West. They struggled last season with injuries particularly in the outfield with Hunter Pence and Angel Pagan missing chunks of the season. Denard Span battled major injuries for all of 2015 with the Nationals. So they still have some injury risk in that area. They need Span and Pence in order to be competitive and make a run. Their bullpen was very effective again in 2015 but Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, and Santiago Casilla are getting older. They have the talent and experience to win the division this year.

The Dodgers lost Zack Greinke and replaced him with a whole bunch of number 3 starters. They still have Clayton Kershaw who may win another Cy Young. Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda should be effective although Kazmir has looked bad this spring. Like the Giants, the Dodgers also have a lot of rotation depth with Alex Wood, new Cuban Yaisel Sierra, and Hyun-jin Ryu. But I like the Giants rotation better. The Dodgers also tried to bolster their bullpen and failed. Justin Turnersbane had offseason microfracture knee surgery, so it’ll be interesting to see how healthy he is this season. The Dodgers will be very good and should battle the Giants and Diamondbacks all season. I think they will miss out on the division and wild card.

The Diamondbacks are going for it. They paid 300 million for Greinke. They traded the farm to Atlanta for starter Shelby Miller. They signed Tyler Clippard for the bullpen. And they already had the young big bats in Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. But I’m not as high on Shelby Miller as most people. Young Cuban Yasmany Tomas left a lot to be desired offensively in his first MLB season. Josh Collmenter is a nice starter. Archie Bradley is promising but unproven. Clearly the core players on this team are young, and they haven’t been tested in a pennant race during the dog days of summer. If they show they can handle that in 2016 and win the West, then obviously I’ll have a different view next season. But I’m taking the experienced Giants and Dodgers over the D-Backs.

I hate the GM of the Padres A.J. Preller. He gets hired, and immediately goes ahead and trades the entire Padres farm system during the 2014/15 offseason for Craig Kimbrel, Matt Kemp, Derek Norris, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton. They even signed James Shields for the rotation. They went for it in 2015. And…they were mediocre. It was a complete failure. And after the season he trades Kimbrel to re-stock the farm system and let’s Justin Upton walk in free agency. But he doesn’t really do anything to improve the club. He didn’t embrace a rebuild or try to go all in again. He’s doing the dance in the middle. I think he should be fired for his 2015 blunder. Presumably he came in for his GM job interview with a plan/strategy. I doubt the plan was “go for it in 2015 and if that fails then I’ll figure something else out”. He failed, and he should be fired.

And the stupid Rockies are doing the mediocre team thing also. They traded Tulo and Corey Dickerson but they kept Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon. I don’t get it at all. These two teams have no chance. Trade all these players and re-stock the farm and try to win down the road. Mediocrity in baseball is completely pointless. They should just move the Rockies to a city with normal air pressure where the balls don’t fly out of the stadium all day, so they have an actual chance to compete. Or move the other 29 teams to Colorado. Whichever is more practical.

Other Divisional Predictions: