My Best Guess: Predicting the 2016 MLB Playoffs and Player Awards


Major League Baseball has such parity. Sure we can probably narrow down the field of competition to around 15 teams before the season even starts. Roughly half the league is actually competing for a championship. But that’s a hell of a lot better than the annual three team dance in the NFL or the one team in the NBA that has a chance to win (I’ll give you a hint, it rhymes with Olden Plate Warriors). Jayson Stark from ESPN (and Winterfell) writes a brilliant annual column showing how the parity in MLB compares to that of the NFL. It really gives you an idea of how even the MLB playing field is, and how hard it is to predict the outcome of the season. Honestly, if you want the real crystal ball just look at the Vegas lines. Vegas knows better than me or any of the other baseball writers. That being said, if you want some of my magic insight, here are my playoff and player award predictions for 2016:

The Metssiah’s Player Award Predictions:

AL MVP: Manny Machado. Yeah I didn’t pick Mike Trout. I’m crazy!! Machado had a breakout season last year, he’s young, and he’s part of a beastly lineup. Plus my scouts (google images) say Machado’s head looks enormous this spring. Maybe he’s been getting his swoll on this offseason. I’m no phrenology expert, but big head equals big season.

AL Cy Young: Chris Archer

AL Rookie of the Year: Byron Buxton

NL MVP: Bryce Harper. Again. That being said, Yoenis Cespedes is going off at 25 to 1 in Vegas for MVP. I like that sweet action.

NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer. Yeah I’m betting against my boys, but I’ll say Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard finish 2, 3 and 4 respectively so I feel better about the betrayal.

NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager. But Steven Matz will probably be in the conversation.


The Metssiah’s American League Playoff Predictions:

WC Game: Rangers over Blue Jays

ALDS: Royals over Rangers and Astros over Yankees

ALCS: Astros over Royals


The Metssiah’s National League Playoff Predictions

WC Game: Nationals over Pirates

NLDS: Cubs over Nationals and Mets over Giants

NLCS: Mets over Cubs


World Series Prediction: Mets over Astros


Also, for my previously published divisional predictions see these posts:

American League East

American League Central

American League West

National League East

National League Central

National League West

My Best Guess: Predicting the 2016 American League West


(This is one post in a series of posts where I will be predicting the outcome of each MLB division. The final post will include full 2016 MLB postseason predictions.)

Last year, all the talking heads had the Seattle Mariners playing the Washington Nationals in the World Series. A complete swing and miss. Not even close. The Mariners sucked and the Nationals…well they kind of sucked too. For what it’s worth, I never thought the 2015 Mariners were going to make the World Series. I thought they had a weak bullpen. And as it turned out, they did have a weak bullpen and lost a bunch of close games during the season. And it didn’t help that Robinson Cano struggled while playing hurt for half the season. Houston finally emerged with a strong young core in 2015, after a calculated rebuilding process. The Rangers made a run in the second half and overtook the Astros to win the freaking division. The Angels lagged behind the two Titans from Texas and the A’s stunk. Here’s what I see in 2016:

AL West: 1) Houston Astros (x) 2) Texas Rangers (wc) 3) LA Angels 4) Seattle Mariners 5) Oakland A’s

Houston is my AL World Series pick. I love the addition of Ken Giles as their closer. Really bolsters that bullpen. Carlos Correa is going to get MVP votes. Dallas Keuchel could win Cy Young again. They even added Doug Fister on the cheap which is a nice get for their rotation. If they need another arm midseason, they will trade for it.

Texas is a close second to Houston in the AL West. They had the third ranked offense in 2015, so this team is in no way offensively challenged. They had bad starting pitching last season, but I love Yu Darvish being back from his TJ surgery. Plus Cole Hamels is a real strong veteran winner that they incorporated into their rotation at the trade deadline last season. I like their chances of being a well rounded club all season long in 2016, and I see them snagging a Wild Card spot.

I really don’t like the rest of the division. The Angels are such jerks for letting Mike Trout waste away in his prime. They got Andrelton Simmons! Hooray! Now they have the best defensive SS. He certainly doesn’t protect Trout in the lineup. And they needed another outfielder because the platoon of Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry doesn’t cut it for a winning team. Jered Weaver is throwing 79 MPH batting practice fastballs this spring and has a mild spine condition aka Stage 1 Wright’s Syndrome. The career of C.J. Wilson has long been over. RIP Angels. Mike Scioscia is not a fan of advanced metrics and all those “analyticians” as he calls them. Well this year even the conventional stats will say the Angels stink.

Mariners made tons of moves this offseason. I think they added a bunch of mediocre pieces to replace a bunch of mediocre pieces. No net improvement in my eyes. I like the Nori Aoki addition to the outfield and Adam Lind has some pop. They added a couple mooks to their bullpen. Everyone seemingly loves that they acquired Wade Miley from the Red Sox for their rotation. Umm Miley is back end of the rotation garbage. Last season they were the pre-season World Series favorite. Whoops! I don’t see them being in the race this season either.

Oakland loves making moves to fake compete. They acquired Khris Davis from the Brewers. They re-acquired Jed Lowrie for SS. They even copied the popular formula of building a stacked bullpen by adding Ryan Madson and John Axford among others. And I am pretty sure all those pen arms will be available at the trade deadline when Billy Beane is holding his annual reliever rummage sale. They stunk last year, and they gonna stink this season. They should have never traded Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester in 2014. Beane blew it. Moneyball baby!


Other Divisional Predictions:

American League East

American League Central