Month: September 2016

2017 Mets: The “Walk Year” Season

On By themetssiah3 Comments


Neil Walker’s 2016 season perfectly highlights the potential risks/rewards associated with contract years for players. In his 2016 “walk year”, Neil Walker was posting the best numbers of his professional career. His .282/.347/.476 slash line represents his highest ever. His 23 long balls tied a career high. Neil was stepping up his performance when it mattered most. But the news that he will have season-ending back surgery to fix a herniated disk is a reminder of how quickly the potential financial rewards for on-field performance can evaporate once injury red flags are thrown into the mix.

The walk year talk is especially relevant for the Mets when you consider their prospective roster for the 2017 season. If the Mets pick up all contract options and tender deals to their arbitration eligible players for 2017, as currently constructed, the Mets will have Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, Addison Reed, and Jose Reyes playing for a contract. Duda and Reed are playing for their first big payday. Reed has a chance to score a 3-4 year deal as a closer if he has a big 2017. Duda will need to return to his slugging form to show the masses that his back woes are a temporary ailment. Bruce will be a free agent for the first time.

After his poor 2016, Grandy’s 2017 play may be the difference between him scoring one more lucrative 2 or 3 year deal or him fighting to get one year contracts each season until he retires. Cabrera is a veteran in a similar spot as Grandy. The Mets have a 2018 option on Cabrera, but if he struggles they’ll just buy it out. For Jose Reyes, the truth is his off the field actions almost got him blacklisted from the sport. But if his current 2016 performance carries over into 2017 and he has a big year, he’ll probably receive another big payday from some club (not likely to be the Mets but who knows).

Despite his injury, it’s hard to ignore the uptick in Neil Walkyear’s 2016 performance. There’s no doubt that the Mets will be hoping for similar increases in production in 2017 from all the aforementioned players. The contract year phenomenon is consistently discussed and debated in the context of free agency in sports. There’s been plenty of studies conducted regarding the contract year phenomenon that indicate the impact on player performance is somewhere between overhyped to non-existent. Some research shows that the overall impact to batting stats in the contract year are negligible while the year after the contract is signed batting stats historically diminish.

There’s also plenty of examples of players raising their game with a payday on the horizon. Nelson Cruz did that in 2014 when he signed a one year 8 million dollar deal with the Orioles after his steroid suspension. He went on to hit 40 homers, drive in 108 RBIs and slash .271/.333/.525. Then he scored a 4 year 57m dollar deal with Seattle. In 2011 Matt Kemp, in the final year of a 2 year deal, went on to finish second in the MVP voting. He hit 39 home runs, drove in 126 RBIs and stole 40 bases. He slashed .324/.399/.586. He posted career highs across the board. Then he scored a 8 year 160 million dollar extension.

There have also been plenty of Mets with walk year success. In 2009 and 2010 Carlos Beltran played 81 and 64 games respectively. He was plagued by injuries. Then in 2011 before he hit free agency he played 142 games and slashed .300/.385/.525. He hit 22 homers, drove in 84 runs and was traded by the Mets at the deadline for Zack Wheeler. Then he scored a 2 year 26 million dollar deal with the Cardinals. Beltran is no stranger to the walk year explosion (see 2004: 38 homers, 104 RBIs, Mr. October run and resulting 7 year 119m dollar contract). Hell Beltran is having an incredible walk year right now at 39 years old.

Jose Reyes, Daniel Murphy, and Yoenis Cespedes are some other examples. Jose won the batting title in 2011 right before he signed his mega-deal (6 years 106m) with the Marlins. We all know Daniel Murphy is having an MVP season right now, but last season was his walk year with the Mets. And until this season, his 2015 regular season combined with his postseason home run barrage represented the best stretch of baseball in his career. Yoenis Cespedes for two years in a row now has put up big time walk year numbers (assuming he opts-out of his 3 year deal at the end of the season). In his last 162 games he’s hit 46 home runs, driven in 115 RBIs and slashed .293/.354/.592.

Sure for every walk year success story there’s probably a corresponding bust (see Denard Span 2015 injury-fest, Ian Desmond 2015 performance drop-off, and Carlos Gomez 2016 poor season). But I’ll take the extra player motivation any day of the week. The contract year certainly doesn’t guarantee anything, but as Sparky Anderson once said “Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I’ll win a pennant every year.” Based on the current roster construction it would appear that Sandy Alderson feels the same way.

Are You Not Entertained?

On By themetssiah2 Comments


Final Score: Mets 5, Marlins 2

Here’s where I’m at right now. The Mets have played entertaining baseball over the last 10 games or so. The team is now 1.5 games behind the Cardinals for a playoff spot and “in the race”. Sure the death toll rises every single game. We lost Neil Walker last night for the rest of the season. But all that said we are fun to watch right now, and that’s what I wanted all season. My desire for the Mets to be a part of baseball’s elite class of teams like the Cubs went out the window in like June. Once Matt Harvey and Lucas Duda went down it was clear that this season was not going to be some easy coast to the finish line situation. But in May, June, July and early August I begged to be entertained. The Mets tortured us during those months. Unwatchable. And now they are fun again. If the Mets plan to be fun from today until the last game of the regular season then I’m all in.

Error City: This game started with sloppy error filled Mets baseball. In the first inning Jose Reyes let a ball go right through his legs at third base and straight into left field. Bartolo Colon was able to get out of the inning unscathed. However in the second inning, Ichiro Suzuki hit a leadoff single and advanced to second base on a pickoff throwing error by Bartolo. Then J.T. Realmuto hit a soft grounder to Reyes at third base, and he made a wild throw to first base. Ichiro scored and Realmuto ended up at second base. Those errors gave the Marlins a 1-0 lead.

Again With The Fight: The Mets immediately fought back and Wilmer Flores hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the second inning to make it 2-1 Mets.

Take The Good Sex With The Bad: Bartolo Colon pitched 7 innings and gave up 2 runs on 7 hits. Another great game from Mr. Rubber Arm. Unfortunately for the Mets, he came up to hit in two really big spots and ultimately destroyed scoring opportunities. In the second inning after the Flores dinger, Jay Bruce and Travis d’Arnaud hit singles. Colon came up with runners on first and second with one out. Terry should have had him bunting. I know he’s not a great bunter but you have him bunt. You can’t allow him to hit into a double play which is exactly what he did. Then in the fourth inning Bruce, d’Arnaud, and Kelly Johnson hit back to back to back singles to load the bases. Terry should have told Bartolo to take every single pitch. After hitting into a double play last time up you can’t let him do it again. But Terry let him swing and Tolo hit into a double play. Dumb call. Killed the rally. Tolo also let up a game typing solo shot to Christian Yelich in the 6th inning to make it 2-2.

The Big Shot: In the 8th inning, Yoenis Cespedes singled off of A.J. Ramos and then Ramos walked Curtis Granderson. Ramos proceeded to retire Flores on a fly out that advanced Yo to third base, and he also retired Jay Bruce who failed to lift a sac fly to the outfield. Ramos then walked d’Arnaud, and Kelly Johnson came up in a potentially game changing spot with two outs and bases loaded. Johnson laced a double down the right field line and the right fielder bobbled the ball along the wall. Everyone scored and it was 5-2 Mets. Jeurys Familia slammed the door with that lead and that was that.

New Arm: Last night the Mets traded Brooklyn Cyclones pitcher Erik Manoah to the Angels for reliever Fernando Salas. Salas is a veteran middle reliever. He’s pitched well in the second half this season. It’ll be nice to have an extra arm in the pen. Hopefully he magically becomes a stud like Addison Reed did. I trust Sandy and his waiver wire expertise.

Just Pray: As I said above, let’s not dwell on the negative. Forget the injuries. Forget about Neil Walker being put in a body bag. Forget about Asdrubal Cabrera and his bum knee. Don’t worry about Steven Matz and his elbow/shoulder woes. Are they all going to wind up on the DL and out forever? Probably. But this is just one of those seasons where nothing goes our way. Let’s just watch whoever is left and see where we are at the very end. In all likelihood the season will come down to the final game, and it will be devastating like in 2007.

Let’s Be Clear: I’ve already seen some crazy talk about Jay Bruce because he’s had a poor showing in 100 ABs or whatever. Let’s be clear. The Mets shouldn’t buy out Jay Bruce’s contract under any circumstances. They must pick up his 2017 option. Keeping Yoenis Cespedes and Jay Bruce is the only acceptable course of action. You don’t let a 30 home run hitter who you just gave up a big prospect for leave because he had a rough month and a half. You keep Bruce. If you want to trade him before the 2017 season or during the season then fine. But you keep him.

Last Minor Note on Neil: I didn’t want to talk about this yet, but I’ll throw it out there. I think before this injury news there was almost a 0% chance that Neil Walker would accept a qualifying offer. Now there’s a chance. There is a chance that teams will be scared off by the fact that Neil had back surgery, and he may want to have another crack at a walk year. We may see Neil Walkyear again.

The Wave: Noah Syndergaard tweeted something negative about doing the wave at baseball games so I figured I’d give my thoughts. My beef with the wave is twofold. 1) As a lazy man I prefer sitting to standing 2) I don’t like when people block my view for no reason. So I’m against the wave. That being said, if kids like the wave and disinterested game attendees like to periodically grunt and swing their arms like a bunch of idiots, who am I to stop them? Swing away you fools.

Today: Jacob deGrom pitches today. If deGrom looks healthy and rested during today’s start the positivity meter is going to explode. If he takes another dump on the field, we may not be in great shape after all.

Walker Done; Mets 2016 Injury Excuse Officially Valid

On By themetssiah1 Comment
“I never should have let the Wilpons sign me up for that Strongman Competition.” -Neil Walkyear

I pushed back on the 2016 injury excuse all season. With every new Mets injury I’ve said that the club still has enough talent to win, and I’ve continuously pointed out that the squad has underachieved for long stretches. SNY cites the injury woes every single game and even then I’ve said that they’re just feeding us the Wilpon organizational excuses. Well I’m done fighting it. Neil Walker is out for the season. He’s getting surgery to repair the herniated disk in his back. Yeah that’s right. Another season ending back injury for the Metsies. With David Wright, Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, Juan Lagares, Zack Wheeler and now Neil Walker out for the season, I think we can officially say that the 2016 injury curse is ridiculous even by Mets standards. The lineup, the rotation, and the bench have all been ravaged by injuries.

Hell the Mets just put Justin Ruggiano on the 60-Day DL. The guy arrived a month ago and now he’s out for good. I don’t even know what happened to him. Apparently he got here and injured his shoulder on some play in the outfield. Then he went on the DL with a hamstring injury that happened when he was running out a grounder. And then out of nowhere the shoulder is what ultimately did him in for the rest of the season. Old Dr. Death Ray Ramirez has really outdone himself in 2016.

Whatever. The team is playing solid ball right now and Wilmer Flores/Kelly Johnson are stepping up. I’d like to complain about Dilson Herrera not being here, but honestly I doubt he’d get the shot to take the job right now anyway. Terry refuses to play Michael Conforto in the outfield, and he’s had some major league success. I can’t imagine him throwing Herrera out there during this Wild Card race even if he was still in the organization.

I’m not going to start speculating regarding how this will impact Neil’s free agency or the qualifying offer or his tenure with the Mets. I’m just focusing on the rest of the season and this playoff race. Pray for Neil Walkyear. Even when the Mets bring a guy in and he posts career high numbers across the board, it still ends with a horrible crippling injury. C’est la vie for Mets fans.